1984 Redux?

by Eduardo del Buey

1984 Redux?

Recently, a friend shared an excellent article by Israeli philosopher and historian Yuval Harari on the Trumpian view of global politics.

This immediately brought to mind George Orwell’s prescient book, 1984. I noticed certain similarities between Mr. Harari’s description of President Trump’s vision and the dystopian world described by Mr. Orwell.

Mr. Harari wrote that supporters of the liberal order see the world as a potentially win-win network of cooperation. They believe that conflict is not inevitable because cooperation can be mutually beneficial.

In his view, President Trump’s vision sees international relations as a zero-sum game, where every transaction involves winners and losers. Therefore, the exchange of ideas, goods, and people is inherently suspect.

In President Trump’s world, international agreements, organizations, and laws are viewed as merely a plot to weaken certain countries while strengthening others — or perhaps as a scheme to undermine all nations and serve a sinister, cosmopolitan elite.

The President’s ideal world seems to be a mosaic of fortresses, where countries are divided by significant financial, military, cultural, and physical barriers. This perspective disregards the potential for mutually beneficial cooperation. Instead, Trump and similar populists argue that it will lead to greater prosperity and peace for the U.S.

Like Mr. Orwell’s Oceania, the U.S. is increasingly becoming a state governed by falsehoods.

Spokespersons lie incessantly with minimal media pushback.

Departmental histories are being rewritten to exclude mentions of women and African Americans who have contributed to the American narrative, and websites are being scrubbed to remove references to historical facts opposed by MAGA leaders.

Opponents of the Trumpian vision are scorned and belittled, much to the delight of MAGA supporters.

Maga supporters are nearly willing to accept that 2+2 can equal 5 if whatever the President asserts does not undermine their overall objectives.

In 1984, Orwell’s world is divided into three states: Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia. The Trumpian vision of the world can be seen as a division into three spheres of influence: the American, Russian, and Chinese spheres, with smaller, weaker countries acknowledging this reality and yielding to the will of the dominant superpower.

This would likely be a world devoid of robust international laws or guardrails to provide states with a framework for negotiating relations and establishing rules to govern behavior.

President Trump appears determined to dismantle all multilateral organizations, mirroring his desire to undermine democratic institutions in his own country. For him, negotiation is a zero-sum game; winning translates to the defeat of the other side rather than achieving a consensus where both parties succeed.

In short, winning is everything; this is his primary motivating factor.

He will use any tool, whether honest or dishonest, legal or illegal, moral or unethical, to win. Unfortunately, his MAGA supporters and the Republican Party endorse this modus operandi and support the President wholeheartedly.

As Mr. Harari concludes, walls are being erected, and drawbridges are being raised. If this continues, the short-term outcomes may include trade wars, arms races, and imperial expansion. The ultimate consequences could be global conflict, ecological collapse, and unchecked AI.

Robust international cooperation is essential for effectively addressing these global issues. Since Mr. Trump has no viable solution for climate change or unregulated AI, his strategy is to deny their existence.

Without platforms for international dialogue, there are inadequate mechanisms to build the consensus necessary for addressing transboundary epidemics and other challenges that disregard national boundaries.

Those who support Mr. Trump’s vision should contemplate how competing national powers can peacefully address their economic and territorial conflicts without relying on multilateral discussion forums or binding laws.