Can the West Survive?

by Eduardo del Buey

Can the West Survive?

In a few short weeks, Donald Trump has achieved tectonic shifts in the geopolitical system, threatening Western liberalism and alliances.

In his speech at the Munich Security Conference on February 14^th, Vice President JD Vance told his audience of senior Western decision-makers that “the greatest threat facing the continent was not from Russia and China, but from within".

According to the BBC, he devoted much of his time to accusing European governments—including the UK's—of abandoning their values and disregarding voter concerns regarding migration and free speech.

The war in Ukraine was discussed. Vance expressed hope that a "reasonable settlement" could be reached following US President Donald Trump's unexpected announcement earlier this week that he and Russia's Vladimir Putin had agreed to start peace talks – without Ukraine or the European Union.

Vance's address, however, focused on culture-war issues and key themes from Trump's presidential campaign, representing a departure from the usual security and defense topics discussed at the annual conference.

Six weeks ago, NATO and the European Union were the U.S.’s staunch allies, serving a commonality of interests that has bound them together in the post-war era.

This is rapidly deteriorating.

As has always been the case with Trump, his statements and actions align with Russian President Putin’s desires, even though they clearly undermine the security interests and systems of the West while forsaking allies and traditional priorities in the process.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius responded to Vance, saying, "He talks about the annihilation of democracy and, if I understood him correctly, compares the situation in some parts of Europe to authoritarian regimes. Ladies and gentlemen, that is unacceptable."

“Unlike the vice president, I want to center my speech on the most urgent questions of European and Transatlantic security,” he stated, emphasizing the necessity of tackling the region's genuine security challenges.

Pistorius reaffirmed Europe’s commitment to defending democracy both within and beyond its borders. “We not only understand who we are protecting our nations against, but also what we are protecting it for,” he stated. “It’s for democracy, for freedom of expression, for the rule of law, and for the dignity of every individual.”

"Ladies and gentlemen, unlike the vice president, I want to focus my speech on the most urgent questions regarding European and Transatlantic security," he stated. "The last few days have confirmed what many have speculated for months: the United States is pushing for a swift peace settlement between Russia and Ukraine, and they expect Europe to take the lead in securing any ensuing agreement," he added.

"By the way, we even allow media that spread Russian propaganda, and federal government representatives answer their questions. No one is excluded," he said. "However, democracy does not mean that a loud minority is automatically correct, and they cannot dictate what the truth is. It does not imply that anyone can say anything, and democracy must be capable of defending itself against extremists who seek to undermine it," Pistorius stated.

The future is clear, and it doesn’t look good for Western liberal democracies.

It looks like Trump will concede to Putin’s demands regarding Ukraine, as evidenced by the meeting last week in Riyadh between Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

The results of Trump’s efforts will be to undermine or dismantle NATO and the EU and thereby fulfill, whether by design or incompetence, Putin’s geopolitical goals.

He is withdrawing the U.S. from its treaty obligations in Europe, which could encourage further Russian expansion into Eastern Europe.

He has already declared economic war on Canada and Mexico and signaled his determination to separate Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally.

He will likely continue to divide the West by exporting MAGA policies and support to extreme right-wing movements and parties in its former allies.

What can the West do?

First of all, accept the obvious.

Under this administration, the United States is no longer an ally on whom its neighbours and traditional allies can depend.

On the contrary, it is becoming an enemy to be feared.

Sharing intelligence with the U.S. carries the previously unthinkable risk that it is feeding it directly to Putin.

Members of the European Union, NATO, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Canada should create a new alliance to safeguard liberalism and Western interests independent of the U.S. A revitalized Western European Union could serve as the foundation for this alliance.

Western countries should significantly reduce or eliminate their dependence on U.S. weaponry and military systems, creating their own production chains to prevent the Trump administration from controlling their supplies. Money talks, and this could send a strong warning to the administration via the U.S. defense industry.

Will the upcoming Putin-Trump summit resemble another Munich, leading to the dismemberment of Ukraine, or will it mirror another Yalta? Both scenarios would divide the world into two or three spheres of influence, marginalizing Western liberal democracies and making them subordinate to either Russia or the U.S.

In short, we must fully assume responsibility for our mutual defense—not for aggression, but for our own survival.

Can we accomplish it?

Can we come together?

This is the essential question of our time.