Canada Votes

by Eduardo del Buey

Canada Votes

With less than two weeks in office, Canada’s new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has called an election for April 28.

A victory would give the winner a strong mandate to confront U.S. President Trump, who appears intent on undermining Canada’s economy and on turning Canada into the 51^st state.

Mr. Carney’s Liberal Party has experienced a significant increase in the polls since former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down. He is steering the party back to the political center and seems to be distancing himself from many of Mr. Trudeau’s left-leaning policies.

Indeed, Mr. Carney must distinguish his government from Mr. Trudeau's, which remained in power for over nine years. This is despite his decision to retain key ministers to remain involved in cross-border negotiations due to their deep and extensive connections across various levels of the U.S. government.

First and foremost is the unpopular carbon tax Canadians resent, a hallmark of Mr. Trudeau’s government. On his first day, Mr. Carney eliminated the carbon tax on consumers but left it for corporate polluters, implying that the added costs would be passed on to consumers. This has been a cornerstone of Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s platform and could be an Achilles' heel for the Prime Minister in this campaign.

Many economists view it as an inflationary tax that undermines Canada’s competitiveness in attracting foreign investment and in sustaining a lower cost of living for consumers. Many also question the value as it has little impact to the global problem as larger manufacturing economies, such as the US, have not signed on to carbon tax programs.

While Mr. Poilievre envisioned an election campaign centered on “axe the tax,” the Trump administration altered this by shifting the election into a contest over who can effectively manage the unpredictable president and mitigate the impacts of his policies on the Canadian economy.

Indeed, Canada faces a fundamental threat from what was once its primary ally and friend.

The question that Canadian voters must consider is which leader is best equipped to handle Mr. Trump.

Mr. Carney has a proven track record in crisis management, overseeing the significant economic collapse of 2008 during his tenure as Governor of the Bank of Canada, earning high praise from former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his late finance minister, Jim Flaherty. He subsequently handled the transition and fallout from Brexit as Governor of the Bank of England.

He has an extensive network of international contacts, demonstrated by his trip to Paris and London on the fifth and sixth days of his time in office, as well as the warm reception he received from President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer.

With many Liberals, including several former ministers, not participating in this election, Mr. Carney has the chance to reshape the party’s upper ranks to his advantage.

So far, he has attracted notable candidates, including former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, former CTV journalist Evan Solomon, and esteemed former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitão—all potential nominees for a cabinet led by Carney that would markedly differ in orientation from the Trudeau government.

Before President Trump took office and former Prime Minister Trudeau resigned, opposition leader Poilievre seemed well positioned to win a majority of seats in parliament.

However, over the past four months, the Liberals have closed their 20-point deficit and are either tied with or leading the Conservatives in most polls.

Six weeks is a long time in politics, and Mr. Carney has never campaigned for office.

On the other hand, Mr. Poilievre has been a professional politician for the past twenty years; however, he has not accomplished much during his time as a parliamentarian or minister in the Harper administration.

Due to his tendency toward negativity, many Canadians compare his style to that of the U.S. president. Many Canadians disapprove of the confrontational approach that characterizes Mr. Poilievre and might prefer Mr. Carney’s calm and respectful demeanor.

However, many view Mr. Carney as somewhat elitist and have concerns about potential conflicts of interest arising from his previous roles in the private sector.

This is perhaps the most significant election in Canadian history, as it will determine who will lead the fight against U.S. encroachment.

Let’s see how the campaign develops.