Canada Votes

by Eduardo del Buey

Canada Votes

On April 28, Canadians went to the polls, electing a minority Liberal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who fell short of securing an absolute majority by just three seats.

The contest primarily involved Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Mr. Carney’s victory would have seemed impossible only four months ago when Mr. Poilievre’s Conservatives held a 20-point lead over the Liberals and appeared well on their way to forming a majority government.

Mr. Poilievre had spent the last three years campaigning to become Prime Minister. He focused on two significant themes: axe the tax (Prime Minister Trudeau’s unpopular carbon tax) and change (the need for Canadians to replace the unpopular Trudeau government in the next election).

Mr. Poilievre has been a Member of Parliament since he was first elected in 2004 at the age of 24. Despite his many years in this role and his tenure as a minister in the government of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, he has yet to achieve any significant accomplishments beyond winning the Conservative Party leadership.

The deep unpopularity of the carbon tax, the Liberal government in general, and Prime Minister Trudeau in particular, were at the foundation of his immense popularity at Christmas.

However, Prime Minister Trudeau resigned in early January, thereby removing one of Mr. Poilievre’s two main arguments for change.

In March, Mr. Carney took office, and his first act was to cancel the carbon tax for individuals, which substantially diffused the other main target of Mr. Poilievre’s three-year campaign.

Critically, however, was the role played by President Trump, his repeatedly declared intent to have Canada become the 51st state, and his objective of destroying the Canadian economy through tariffs. This was the political rug that was pulled out from under Mr. Poilievre’s feet.

So Canadians went to the polls and voted for change, but only for partial change: change through continuity.

They elected Mr. Carney, a globally respected economist with an extensive curriculum vitae and considerable experience in both the public and private sectors. The continuity of Liberal leadership stems from their choice of an excellent leader to replace a failed and unpopular Prime Minister. Mr. Carney demonstrated his capabilities by running a successful campaign as a rookie politician.

In the end, despite nearly matching the Liberals in the popular vote, Mr. Poilievre lost not only the election but also his own seat. He has yet to announce how he will operate without a seat in the House; however, the results and tradition dictate that another Conservative might resign their seat to allow him to run for Parliament in a byelection.

The two smaller parties, the separatist Bloc Quebecois and the socialist NDP, lost a significant number of seats to the Liberals as their traditional voters feared President Trump and were convinced that neither party was a realistic option to take on the U.S. President.

Prime Minister Carney must now deliver.

He must negotiate a new trade deal with the Trump administration to remove the tariffs currently harming the Canadian economy.

He must also address other vital issues: establishing Canada as an internal free trade zone with no barriers to interprovincial trade, rebuilding the transportation infrastructure to encourage Canadian companies to explore new markets beyond the U.S., reducing municipal and provincial barriers to resource extraction and transportation, and tackling the lack of affordable housing while preparing Canada’s military for readiness.

He must also continue his efforts to bring the Liberals back to the political center, marginalize the party's extreme left wing, and encourage foreign investment in a Canada affected by the Trump administration’s determination to usurp all foreign investment to its shores.

If anyone can succeed, he can.

He is a proven high-level crisis manager, evidenced by his management of the financial meltdown of 2008 as Governor of the Bank of Canada and his 2015 management of the Brexit crisis while serving as the Governor of the Bank of England. His success as a senior international public servant at the U.N. and his extensive private sector achievements demonstrate his proven abilities.

As a novice politician, he will need to manage a minority government to maintain the confidence of the House and engage with citizens from all walks of life and political backgrounds. After ten years of leftward drift, Mr. Carney must govern from the political center and concentrate on policies that make economic sense.

If his successful election campaign is any indication, he is certainly up to the task, and I wish him all the best.