Cuba
Tomorrow, January 1st, Cubans will celebrate the 66th anniversary of Fidel’s triumphant entry into Havana.
Given the island's history over this time and the travails it is currently facing, “celebrate” may not exactly be the right word.
Cuba today regularly suffers from 72-hour power blackouts because the government cannot supply the electricity that the public and industry need.
According to The Economist, Cuba produces little in sufficient quantity: not eggs, which it recently imported from Colombia; not sugar, which it once supplied to the world and now imports from Guatemala; not milk powder, which it gets from the UN; and not power, as the worsening blackouts reveal.
The government lacks foreign currency for imports. Inflation is rampant; a dollar’s worth of Cuban pesos at the official exchange rate is worth seven cents at the unofficial one. The price of a carton of eggs outstrips the monthly minimum wage.
“All of us are here to save the revolution and socialism,” Cuba’s president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, said this month.
Save what and for whom, one may ask?
A political system based on an obsolete ideology and supported by countries who either have a strategic interest in the island (like China and Russia) or countries like Venezuela and, to a lesser extent, Nicaragua and Bolivia) who share the same bankrupt ideology that merely produces impoverishment and authoritarianism.
According to Omar Everleny of the University of Havana, an economy that is trapped in the amber of a system of state enterprises that stifle innovation and favor, or better still, insist on top-down management based on ideology rather than common sense.
He goes on to note that he believes President Diaz-Canel is working on this, but changing the mindset of an entrenched bureaucracy takes time—perhaps more time than the government has available to create a 21st-century vision of socialism that melds humanistic concerns with practical and efficient management.
But does Cuba have much more time before Cuban society explodes in protest?
This is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic while it sinks.
Cuba is still a long way from being self-sufficient in food production. Between 70 to 80 percent of food is still imported from sources such as Venezuela and Vietnam. An estimated 12.8 percent (1.4 million people) in Cuba did not meet the daily threshold of 2,100 calories per capita in 2023.
Seventy-two percent of the population lives beneath the poverty line.
As noted above, Cuba is also energy deficient.
Cuba produces around 80,000 barrels per day (13,000 m3/d) of heavy crude oil. However, the country consumes about 150,000 bbl/d (24,000 m3/d), of which 53,000 bbl/d (8,400 m3/d) of oil and oil products are imported from Venezuela on Petrocaribe’s generous financing terms under a wide-ranging cooperation accord.
With the hydrocarbons normally sent by Venezuela and more sporadically by Russia not being enough to meet its needs, the Cuban regime regularly asked former Mexican president and Castro admirer Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador for financial aid.
At the end of his term, the Mexican President provided over 3 million barrels of crude and derivatives. Mexico has not yet clarified under what payment terms it delivered those shipments or whether they will continue through 2024 if Havana so requests, but I doubt Cuba can pay other than by leasing doctors to Mexico for which it charges over US10,000 per month per head – of which only US$200 goes to the doctors.
The average monthly salary for state workers—who still constitute a large portion of the Cuban workforce—is around 750 to 1,000 Cuban pesos (CUP), equivalent to approximately 30 to 40 USD, according to the exchange rates before currency reforms enacted in January 2021. However, this salary does not cover the costs of the basic food basket.
Politically, Cuba remains a dictatorship with no freedom of expression, assembly, or any semblance of democracy.
Political control is complete, and security services are ubiquitous.
Security agencies and the military control all key industries, ensuring the regime is fully supported by security officials with a vested financial interest in its survival.
Hubert Matos, who fought for Cuba’s freedom together with Fidel Castro (and was later imprisoned for his criticism of the system), once reported that he asked him: “Fidel, have you decided against putting into practice what you propose in your discourse ‘History will absolve me’, to give the workers part of the rewards (benefits) of the businesses?”
He said to me, “No, Hubert, we can’t do that because if we favor workers' economic independence, there’s only one step from there to political independence. We can’t!"
That just about summarizes the regime’s views on political and individual freedoms, which prevent Cubans from creating an economy that offers the resources to cover basic needs and sustain a growing economy.
Between 1959 and 2023, some 2.9 million Cubans left Cuba.
The first wave of emigration occurred directly after the revolution, followed by the Freedom Flights from 1965 to 1973. This was followed by the 1980 Mariel boatlift and, after 1994, the flight of “balseros” emigrating by raft.
The Cuban diaspora has prospered wherever it has settled and shown what Cubans can accomplish in a free environment. Indeed, on January 20th, a Cuban-American, Senator Marco Rubio, will become US Secretary of State.
Some may accuse me of being biased and of overlooking the regime's achievements in education, health, and culture.
Indeed, but at the cost of the Cubans’ freedom, survivability, and dignity, they are small indeed.
Happy New Year, Eduardo. Another interesting read. It made me think of Canadian tourism to Cuba - I travelled there in 2015 - mainly in Havana but a few days on the beach as well. Where does all that money go ? Not trickled down to worker level. People on the street would ask me to shop for them in stores exclusively for foreigners, much like the Beriozka stores in Moscow back in the USSR days. Still, at least at that time, local ghetto clubs in were filled with talented musicians and locals seemed to be having a wonderful time. The people are good. The politics are bad.
Very instructive article. Thank you. Happy New Year. 🎉