Dignity
I have always admired leaders who act with dignity – for themselves and their citizens.
Mr. Trump continues to dictate the conversations he wants, and others play his game by reacting too quickly, often carelessly, rather than carefully crafting their responses.
He feeds off these reactions and puts his adversaries in a weaker negotiating position.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s visit to Mar a Lago to dine with Mr. Trump and senior staff members on Friday evening and move the conversation forward took Canadians by surprise.
It counts as bold and direct, necessary action in the face of a major threat to Canadians, and his decision to face Mr. Trump is an example of leadership that foes and friends alike expect of a Prime Minister.
If Trudeau can craft a message that appeals to Mr. Trump’s self-interest, he may well prevail and see Canadian interests through to a successful conclusion.
We will see over the coming weeks the impact it will have not only on Mr. Trump’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada but also on the Prime Minister’s erstwhile partners in his fight to keep those tariffs, the provincial premiers.
Early reactions to the Trump tariffs, before Trudeau’s visit, among Canada’s provincial premiers were best described by journalist Chantal Hebert as a “chickens with their heads cut off” response.
Various Premiers responded immediately with irrational mixed messages.
Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford immediately called for the U.S. and Canada to dump Mexico from the current CUSMA free trade agreement and negotiate a bilateral treaty. Ford said it was "unfair" and even "insulting" for Trump to speak of Canada and Mexico in the same sentence.
Alberta’s Premier Danielle Smith said that “the incoming administration had valid concerns related to illegal activities at our shared borders” and called for Alberta to patrol its border with the U.S. and appears to have been invited to Trump’s inauguration on January 20th.
Conservative Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre slammed Prime Minister Trudeau as he has for many years but offered no advice or support.
Shortly thereafter, seeing no evidence of action from Ottawa, both Ford and Quebec Premier François Legault called for a meeting between the Premiers and the Prime Minister to address the issue.
The meeting finally took place but was inconclusive.
The differences between the initial reactions of Prime Minister Trudeau and President Sheinbaum’s initial reactions were stark until news of the Prime Minister’s visit hit the news.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum wrote Mr. Trump a letter that she immediately provided to the media.
In it, she outlined her government’s intention to pursue a conciliatory approach, underscoring Mexico’s actions to control the flow of refugees northwards and her goal of reducing the flow of weapons from the U.S. to Mexico.
She also blamed domestic demand for drugs in the U.S., noting Mexico’s objective to build bridges and not fences. She offered Mr. Trump an opportunity to engage in constructive dialogue from which both countries could benefit.
She also directly alluded to possible sanctions against the U.S. should Trump impose tariffs on Mexico.
When Trump tweeted that Sheinbaum had agreed to stop the flow of migrants completely, Sheinbaum contradicted him publicly and issued a transcript of their telephone conversation as proof.
At all times, a dignified response.
And, in short, she stood up to the bully and refused to allow him to dictate events.
So has the Prime Minister, and both leaders seem to be managing their challenges with the incoming administration as well as can be expected.
To be fair, comparing the responses of Mexico and Canada is like comparing apples to oranges.
President Sheinbaum is the absolute ruler of a country where there is no real opposition, no longer has any democratic institutions, and where state governments are all ruled by her monolithic Morena Party.
Her government enjoys broad popular support, and political opposition is highly fragmented and ineffectual.
Prime Minister Trudeau, on the other hand, faces political Armageddon in the election expected early to mid-2025. He is currently 20 points behind Poilievre and showing no signs of recovery.
The provincial premiers are mostly Conservatives who neither trust nor defend Trudeau and could be hard-pressed to rally around a Prime Minister whom they have constantly labeled as weak and ineffective.
Mr. Trump is a shrewd political animal, and he knows that he has Canada on the ropes.
He may find President Sheinbaum’s responses adequate. He may respect her willingness to stand up to him.
But will his extreme dislike for the Prime Minister lead him to play for time until Mr. Poilievre wins the election and becomes a more pliant negotiating partner?
Or will he accept Trudeau’s reasoned arguments and craft a solution that appears to be a win for him but is, in reality, a win for Canadians, Americans, and Mexicans?
The jury is out.
But his invitation to the Prime Minister to dinner shows some flexibility on Mr. Trump’s part and should not be discounted in any analysis.
Stay tuned!
Interesting play.
Brilliant commentary. As always, well written and interesting.