European Elections – Putin’s Victory?

Europeans went to the polls on June 9^th to elect members of the European Parliament. As expected, the conservatives under the Popular Party banner won a plurality of seats, and together with the Social Democrats who came in second, are expected to win the parliamentary election for president and commissioners.

This was the expected outcome, although not the only one.

The status of national parties is worrisome for those who value European integration. It is however welcome relief for those who are fed up with over-reach from Brussels and who cherish stronger local control of immigration, cultural values and economic policies all while maintaining a sense of European unity. 

In the Netherlands, the anti-EU coalition led by Geert Wilders is forming a government that stands against many of the policies espoused by the Union – social engineering and mass immigration to name two.

In Germany, the extreme-right-wing Alternativ für Deutschland is now in second place in national polls, outpolling Chancellor Scholz’ party that has fallen to third place. The German reaction to former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to allow hundreds of thousands of Muslim refugees with no consultations with other EU members has left a bitter taste for many, and the rise of the right-wing anti-EU parties is a result.

The extreme-right governs in Austria and Finland, Sweden and Slovakia, as well as Italy and Hungary.  

In the European election, far right leader Marine LePen’s National Rally beat President Macron’s party handily 32% to 15%, causing President Macron to dissolve parliament and call for parliamentary elections on June 30^th and July 7^th (two rounds) in which LePen’s party is expected to sweep.

Mr. Macron is betting that two and a half years of right-wing governance will convince voters to re-elect him in 2027. This is quite a gamble since Mme.  LePen’s policies and vision already appeal to a good number of French voters and putting them into place may well cement her hold on the electorate.

Should she win the presidency in 2027, as president of the world’s seventh largest economy, Le Pen would almost certainly rock the EU to its foundations, prioritising patriotic interests over international collaboration. Celebrating her party’s win in Sunday’s EU vote, she said the result should send a message to Brussels and “put an end to this painful epoch of globalism.”

Accused of flirting with the Kremlin, she has both vowed to yank Paris out of NATO’s integrated military command and would challenge the authority of the EU executive, which she once called to abolish.

Just Tuesday, the Republican right, the party of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, asked for an alliance with Mme LePen’s party, almost guaranteeing her a win in the elections. This marks the first time that an established political party seeks an alliance with Mme LePen’s National Rally.

The glue that holds these extreme right-wing parties together is their opposition to mass immigration from the Islamic world and Africa and the social engineering undertaken by generations of European bureaucrats in Brussels. They are also nationalistic and do not agree with the abdication of national sovereignty to a bureaucracy in Brussels. And many Europeans agree.

Underscoring this, however, is the fact that the values espoused by these parties are also the values that underpin Putin’s Russia, and Putin has contributed much money and ideological backing to many of these parties. European nationalism is about reinforcing sovereignty especially regarding control of borders while maintaining the economic union which was the main reason for the EU. Putin is supporting these movements in the hope that he can divide Europeans from the US and extend Russia’s influence.

Putin’s goal since assuming power in 1999 has been to destroy NATO and dissolve the EU. He has supported fifth columns in a number member states to appeal to voters who share similar goals.

We should not forget that Putin has funded parties that are ideological allies working to undermine the foundations of liberal democracy and European unity from within.

While there have been mass demonstrations in Hungary against the regime of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, his Fidesz Party won the plurality of seats in Sunday’s election. Orban is perceived to be Putin’s Trojan Horse in Europe – blocking aid to Ukraine both in the EU and NATO and undermining the EU’s insistence on democratic governance and freedom of expression and the press.

Thus, while the European parliament may be in the hands of moderate parties, many member states risk falling into the hold of right-wing leaders who may well decide to unravel Europe’s integration efforts of the past seventy-five years.

Their concern is understandable since the influx of Muslim immigrants has threatened their very culture and national identity. European countries have never been comfortable with the concept of multicultural societies, especially when those alien cultures threaten their very existence as does militant Islamism which is another fifth column we should worry about.

And, should Donald Trump win in November, these right-wing parties in Europe will be bolstered by an American administration that also supports the weakening of the European Union and whose President is an ardent admirer of Putin.

Right-wing anti-EU parties are listening to a large segment of European society that has long felt ignored by Brussels and is frustrated with the results of mass Muslim immigration and its effects on the fibre of their cultural sovereignty and national security.

This could result in a tectonic shift in global geopolitics that would affect us all.