Falling Dominos

Eduardo del Buey

Falling Dominos

The dominos created and funded by Iran are falling, and this leads some to think that the Islamic Republic’s regime may also go down soon.

The problem is that these dominos are falling to ISIS-like Islamist fighters who threaten to create a caliphate out of Al-Assad’s Syria.

In the simplest terms, we are seeing Sunni jihadi allies supported by Turkish President Erdogan routing Al Assad Shia and Alawite loyalists backed by the Islamic Republic’s Khamenei and Russia’s Putin.

It is important to know who is fighting and why.

Assad is fighting for his position.

Russia for its bases.

Iran for influence.

Turkey for land.

And Al Qaeda insurgents for jihad.

The only people protecting Christians and Druze in the occupied territories are the Kurds, who fight to establish an independent homeland of their own after centuries of persecution and genocide.

Erdogan considers them to be mortal enemies, and his troops are actively engaged in massacring them.

Is this the beginning of the end of the road for the “butcher of Damascus” Bashir Al Assad and his ally the Islamic Republic of Iran?

After twelve years of massacring over 500,000 Syrians, is the worst coming to an end?

Or is this simply the establishment of ISIS rule over Syria?

There are reports that a coup is underway in Damascus.

The situation is very fluid, and no one has a handle on which direction events could take.

Much of the Russian air force that had supported Al Assad’s troops has been recalled to fight in Ukraine given the situation there.

According to the Associated Press, armed Islamist insurgents (ostensibly allied with Al Qaeda) breached Syria’s largest city Friday and clashed with government forces for the first time since 2016. This has added fresh uncertainty to a region reeling from multiple wars.

The advance on Aleppo followed an offensive launched by these Islamist insurgents backed by Turkey on Wednesday, as thousands of fighters swept through villages and towns in Syria’s northwestern countryside.

Government forces appear to have melted away, and while the government claims they pulled back to organize a counter-offensive, the regime seems to be in danger of collapsing.

Today Abu Mohammed al-Golani is trying hard to distance his group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from its al-Qaeda origins, spreading a message of pluralism and religious tolerance. HTS is leading the war against the regime.

Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International research center, said he believes it’s unlikely the U.S. will remove HTS and al-Golani from its terrorism list. “As far as I can tell, the U.S. government remains genuinely concerned about the group’s links to global jihadism,” Lund said.

Waiel Olwan, a researcher at the Turkey-based think tank Jusoor for Studies, said he believes al-Golani is trying to show he is in control of Idlib and to guarantee a place for himself in Syria once the conflict ends.

Asim Zedan, an activist whose group tracks violations by HTS, said the ongoing terror designation is a blow to al-Golani’s self-image. “After forming the salvation government and setting up ministries, al-Golani now sees himself as a head of state,” Zedan has said.

As part of the rebranding, al-Golani has reportedly cracked down on extremist factions and it is said that he has dissolved the notorious religious police. In fact, for the first time in more than a decade, a Mass was performed recently at a long-shuttered church in Idlib province.

Whether this is a real or cosmetic change in its political position remains to be seen.

Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said there is little doubt in Russia that the HTS-led offensive was supported by Turkey led by its Islamist sympathiser President Erdogan, citing the rapid supply of ammunition and coordination with Turkish-backed SNA forces.

He also noted that training for first-person view (FPV) drones, which are being heavily used by Syrian rebels in their offensive, was reportedly conducted in Turkish-controlled areas last summer.

“Likely, drone operators are somehow involved in the operation from Idlib, as HTS has limited experience with FPV drones,” Mardasov said.

“This should serve as a stark reminder to Assad of his actual capabilities, as his power has only survived thanks to Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah - all of which are currently preoccupied with their challenges. Assad has twice rejected Ankara’s offers to normalize relations.”

The Islamic Republic of Iran has now lost both Hezbollah and Hamas, its major proxies, in recent weeks to Israeli forces. It could be on the verge of losing Lebanon.

Losing Syria and Lebanon would end the Islamic Republic’s arc of influence, which once extended from Teheran to the Mediterranean.

Will the challenges of the war in Ukraine force the Russians to abandon their Syrian ally and contribute to ending Al Assad’s reign of terror?

Will a jihadi victory simply make things worse for Syrian civilians?

There currently seem to be two possible scenarios: a continuation of the Al Assad dictatorship or the establishment of an ISIS caliphate under Turkish tutelage in the region – both anathema to Western interests.

The Kurdish fighters are currently protecting minorities now against the jihadi hordes as well as the territory they control (three noncontiguous enclaves along the Turkish and Iraqi borders: Afrin in the northwest, Kobani in the north, and Jazira in the northeast).

Can they prevail and avoid an Islamist holocaust?

Can they hold territory and use it to create the basis of the Kurdish state they have long sought?

Given Turkish perfidy towards NATO, can the West lose its collective myopia and pursue the goal of an independent Kurdish state with the same zeal with which it pursues Palestinian independence?

How will Israel react?

At present, Muslims fighting Muslims works in Israel’s favor.

But will Israel acquiesce to an Islamist caliphate close to its border should the Islamists oust Al-Assad and take over Syria?

Will Erdogan attack Israel as he has threatened?

And should Israel retaliate, would Erdogan then invoke NATO’s Article V covering an attack on a member state and involve NATO states in this war for Turkish expansion?

And where is U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres? Stunning silence from him and his spokesperson since the beginning of hostilities.

One wonders why.

Questions for us to ponder at this critical time!