On Sunday French voters spoke for the second time in a week, and the result was a shock to the system.
President Macron had been criticized for calling a snap parliamentary election in the wake of the European elections. And the criticism seemed to be spot on the Sunday before last when his party scored miserably in the first round.
Former British Prime minister Harold Wilson’s adage that a week is a long time in politics never rang truer that this week in French politics.
The fissiparous leftist parties coalesced to form a “National Front” reminiscent of Leon Blum’s similar victorious strategy in 1936 and won the presidency.
The left rejoiced, by rioting in the streets of Paris and waving Palestinian and Hamas flags with nary a French flag in sight. It stopped the far-right party of Marine LePen dead in its tracks and relegated it to third place with no chance of forming a government.
And now, the speculation begins.
Can President Macron live up to his reputation of being an astute politician and pull victory out of the jaws of defeat?
I believe it is a distinct possibility.
The leftist coalition came together for one purpose only: to stop the right.
It has achieved that goal.
But it is so divided that it will likely be impossible for them to form a lasting government.
Far left leader Jean-Luc Mélanchon is apparently hated by his fellow leftist leaders and his party’s policies are not supported by them.
President Macron’s challenge is to shave off Mr. Mélanchon’s “allies” and entice the more moderate members to form a coalition with his group, even if that means offering them the Prime Ministership in exchange for a coalition government that will incorporate the President’s party’s views into a progressive alliance that ensures stability until the presidential elections in 2027.
President Macron will be in Washington this week for the NATO Summit. I suspect that a lot of sub-rosa negotiations will begin to occur between the various parties to see if they can shake out a workable coalition.
Can stability be achieved?
Time will tell.
But I do believe that there is a chance if common sense prevails and that both coalition’s goals of a progressive stable government can be achieved with give and take on both sides.
I hope that this long week will bear some reasonable results that will not bankrupt France as would a purely leftist government if left to its devices.
I agree with your analysis Eduardo. French politicians will have to learn how to work together in a coalition government. They used to until De Gaulle put an end to the chienlit 70 years ago and created the Fifth Republic. One can expect that Macron will not have an easy time for the rest of his mandate with the Assemblée Nationale, including the elected members of his own party. He can probably find some solace in a fire chat with Biden…
Shock to the system is an understatement. Thanks for explaining it. I was scratching my head wondering if I missed something. In one short week the right and then —the what? The left? They joined—? Next stop, Biden—? This must surely be 2024’s version of a Midsummer’s Night Dream.