Gaza: Hope or Despair?

"War erases individuality, turning humans into mere statistics.”

Joe Sacco “Footnotes in Gaza”

Soviet dictator Josef Stalin once observed that one death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic.

Many of us are looking at Gaza with despair. As thousands have died on both sides since October 7^th, few see an out.

From the Israeli side, Hamas’s vicious terrorist attack on October 7^th was the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust. After living for over seven decades with Palestinian terrorism, this was the blow that led to the invasion of Gaza and over thirty thousand deaths of men, women, and children.

In the view of many Israelis, the Palestinians brought this upon themselves by electing a terrorist government that has repeatedly attacked Israel and that on October 7^th killed over 1,200 innocent Israelis in their homes, took over 230 hostage and has murdered dozens of the hostages since then. Hamas has preferred to put the entire Gaza population at risk rather than avoid the military action by releasing the hostages immediately and turning over those guilty of atrocities.

This is the perception that most Israelis share. There was a truce before October 7 and the attacks are the reason why it would appear impossible for them to trust any peace agreement with a Palestinian state that includes Hamas.

From the Palestinian side, they have lived for over seven decades severed from their homes and in either internal or external exile. They have been either rejected from immigrating to or ejected after living in neighbouring Arab countries. They have been relegated to refugee camps, led by ineffectual and corrupt leaders, and motivated by a religion that glorifies martyrdom and death over life and peace.

Supported by a corrupt United Nations Agency that appears bent on keeping them down by supporting hatred for Jews and Israel, their leaders have rejected a comprehensive peace deal with Israel on numerous occasions – convincing Palestinians that through terrorism they could achieve their goal of ridding the world of Israel and Jews.

This is each side’s perception of reality, perceptions that will be very difficult to eradicate.

Furthermore, their erstwhile Arab allies will never allow them to settle in their states, nor will they contribute to their survival in exile. Those governments continue to oppress their own people and distrust Palestinians given their history in Jordan and their support for the Muslim Brotherhood that is anathema to most Arab governments.

Each side is run by maximalist governments that believe that total victory is possible through the annihilation of the other side.

And each side’s perceptions are deeply ingrained in their national psyche and are unlikely to be modified or dislodged anytime soon.

My perceptions are equally mixed.

My human side mourns the countless deaths on both sides of the geopolitical equation and fears even more deaths if something doesn’t change.

As a former diplomat who spent some time on Middle East issues, I am convinced that the current Israeli government must be defeated at the polls by a coalition of parties that subscribe to an eventual two-state solution and who will pursue this option.

The Palestinians can take a first step towards negotiating a two-state solution by guaranteeing the complete disappearance of Hamas, Hezbollah, cutting ties with the Iranian regime that sustains them and, once and for all, recognizing Israel’s right to exist.

Until this happens, Hamas and Hezbollah will continue to be an existential threat to the security of Israel and Jews everywhere.

This cannot go unchecked.

Change does not necessarily require U.S. intervention.

Today the U.S. is deeply divided between right and left, between supporters of Israel and Palestinians. It also has no leverage over the Palestinian terrorist groups or Iran – the principal players that must be engaged if any peace plan is to succeed.

Rather, it must be up to regional states to enforce a “pax arabica”.

Arab states must coalesce and intervene, eliminate the terrorist groups, confront Iran as it continues to sow havoc in the region, and bring together moderate Palestinians in a government capable of partnering with a newly elected Israeli government mandated to negotiate seriously.

These states have the military might, the language and cultural affinity, a shared religion, and the funding necessary to make a peace and a reconstruction plan work.

They have resisted helping Palestinians in the past, preferring to leave it to the West to sustain the refugees while they supported the Palestinian terrorist activities.

Now is the time for them to step up and do their part for peace and stability in their corner of the globe.

Removing this rejectionist front, ensuring that they really accept Israel’s right to exist, and returning whatever hostages remain alive are essential steps the Palestinians must take to begin a peace process. And in this, the role of Arab states is key and central.

At this stage, I cannot think of any other scenario capable of achieving a peaceful resolution of a tragic conflict.

Despite the difficulties in achieving these objectives, however, they are nothing like the challenge of changing the mentalities of Israelis and Palestinians.

That will require concerted efforts by leaders on both sides to achieve. It will require both sides to engage in confidence building measures, to begin educating their youth from the very beginning on peaceful coexistence, and the active involvement of individual, well-respected, influencers on both sides to convince voters that peace is not only possible but essential for their survival.

There is a thin line between hope and despair in the Middle East.

Now is the time to make hope work.

The alternative is unbearable.