Iran: Back to the Future?

by Eduardo del Buey

PODCAST:

Iran – Back to the Future?

After the devastating bombing of three major nuclear sites in Iran, the U.S. administration continues to state that its objective is not regime change. Indeed, it has invited the Ayatollahs to return to the negotiating table.

But Israel takes a different tack.

Israeli leaders have stated that they do seek regime change, but do not define what this would entail.

As Israel continues to weaken Iran’s political and military leadership and nuclear capabilities, many are now wondering what will happen if the regime collapses.

Despite decades of nationwide protests, Iran's opposition remains fragmented among rival groups and, on the surface, seems to lack an organized presence.

Iran’s domestic opposition presents a range of ideologies, goals, and support bases. While some operate within the country, many are based in exile due to government repression.

The main opposition groups can be categorized as follows: monarchists led by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late Shah; the People’s Mujahedin of Iran, led by Maryam Rajavi; and the National Front, led by Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi, both currently under house arrest in Iran.

In my opinion, Mr. Pahlavi has the best chance for success. The People’s Mujahedin has often been labeled a terrorist organization with little support in Iran or among diaspora groups. I don’t believe Ms. Rajavi could be a unifying figure to lead the country forward.

Meanwhile, Messrs. Mousavi and Karoubi both participated in the 2009 elections and are unlikely to fully distance themselves from the current system in the eyes of Iran’s disaffected youth.

Mr. Pahlavi claims he is a democratic leader, gaining popularity among the Iranian diaspora and increasingly viewed positively within Iran, where the youth long for a more Western-oriented democratic system that can liberate them from the religious and social constraints, as well as the economic turmoil resulting from the conditions imposed by the current regime.

He claims to have a hundred-day plan for political and economic change in Iran. I have seen reports indicating that senior members of the military and bureaucracy are in contact with his organization. If these reports are accurate, this situation would resemble the military’s connections with Ayatollah Khomeini’s group, which ultimately contributed to his father’s downfall and the revolution of 1979.

According to a recent survey by the Empirical Research and Forecasting Institute, 79.9% of Iranians prefer Mr. Pahlavi over the current political leaders, indicating strong support within the country.

During recent protests, support for Mr. Pahlavi became more prominent on social media and at public demonstrations. Some young Iranians and dissidents supported him as a unifying figure.

Reza Pahlavi emerges as the most significant opposition figure among Iranians both in the country and abroad, with recent surveys and anecdotal evidence showing considerable support.

However, his influence is constrained by the absence of an organized movement in Iran, the mixed legacy of the monarchy, and uncertainties regarding the depth and durability of his support amid the current repressive conditions. His primary role remains that of a symbolic leader and potential unifier for anti-regime sentiment, rather than a direct political force in Iran.

Indeed, Reza Pahlavi himself does not explicitly call for the direct restoration of the monarchy; instead, he advocates for a national referendum in which Iranians can freely decide whether to reestablish a constitutional monarchy or choose another form of government.

This approach seeks to emphasize democratic legitimacy and avoid the perception of imposing a monarchy from abroad.

Some may argue that reinstating the monarchy is a regressive step into the past.

I would point to Spain as an example of why this might not be true.

Former King Juan Carlos was mentored by the dictator Francisco Franco for many years. However, when Franco died in 1975, the King established a strong alliance with right-wing leader and former Franco minister Manuel Fraga, Communist leader Santiago Carrillo, and centrist leader Adolfo Suárez, resulting in a peaceful transition and leading Spaniards to vote three years later for a democratic constitution confirming Spain is a constitutional monarchy that remains in effect.

If Mr. Pahlavi and other opponents to the current regime can follow this transition model, there may be a chance for a peaceful move toward democracy in Iran.

Nothing could be more welcome.