Is Orange the New Blue?

Last week, a jury of his peers found former President Trump guilty of 34 felony charges. He is now the only former president (and cast member of the movie “Home Alone 2”) to have been convicted of felonies, and this marks a tectonic shift in how the presidency is perceived by many.

Former President Nixon resigned and was pardoned before ever going to trial, so he was never convicted of anything, and went on to become a foreign policy guru to many as he rehabilitated himself. Trump has already been convicted in a civil suit by E. Jean Carrol, so this conviction undeerscores his criminal credentials.

Mr. Trump reacted as expected.

Rather than act contrite and accept responsibility, Trump went on one of his rants, accusing the judge of being corrupt, the jury of being biased, and the prosecution in the pay of the Biden administration, (even though the trial (it took place in a state court where the federal government has no authority) and, of course, the whole thing being “rigged”.

Trump’s behavior before, during, and after the trial was egregious, and could well play against him when he is sentenced on July 11. The same judge who heard the case and whom he insulted repeatedly, will sentence the felon, and I expect him to consider this behaviour in the sentencing.  

Where does Trump go from here?

He can and will likely appeal the verdict and the trial up through the judicial system with his main objective being to avoid jail time – this outcome will depend upon decisions made by the courts. Should things move up through the criminal justice system to the Supreme Court, the Justices could revert the verdict to a lower court but they could not pardon Trump since the crimes were tried in a state court.

However, since the Supreme Court has three Trump appointees, and since five of the Justices are currently being accused in the court of public opinion of corruption, I assume that this court is tainted enough to stretch the process until after the election in November.

Where does this leave the Republican Party?

Trump once said that he could shoot someone on 5^TH Avenue and his followers would still vote for him. That observation has proven prescient, and nothing he has done or said during the past eight years has reduced the support of his core base.

Trump is expected to be formally nominated as the Republican presidential candidate on July 18^th. While there is still some time for Republicans to reflect on their candidate, there doesn’t yet appear to be any evidence that this decision will be reversed, and another candidate elected.

If this transpires, it will again underscore the Republican Party’s determination to weaken the institutions of democracy and bend them to Trump’s will.

One thing readers must keep in mind is that Nikki Haley won some 20% of the Republican vote in the primaries. She has since declared her support for Trump, and he could decide to put her on the ticket as his running mate to ensure that at least some of the dissident Republicans vote for the ticket.

Where does this leave the United States?

As divided as ever.

Americans must now face the possibility that a convicted felon could become President which would be to the detriment of the U.S.’s position in the world.

As a convicted felon, a President Trump could not travel to most countries. That said, which world leader (other than Putin and those of his ilk) would want to be seen in his company or want him as a guest.

While the U.S. remains a global power, its mystique will be diminished significantly. Where will Trump find allies for his foreign policy initiatives? And what will this mean for NATO and the European Union, both of which Trump criticised during his first term as president?

So, the question remains: will Trump ever trade in his trademark navy blue suit for a prison orange jumpsuit?

Not any time soon, if ever, if the appeals process works to his favour and takes its lengthy course.