Latin American Vignettes

by Eduardo del Buey

Latin American Vignettes

Uruguay's opposition candidate, Yamandú Orsi, won the presidency on November 24th, defeating the conservative coalition. Unlike radical shifts seen elsewhere, Orsi’s moderate platform blends market-friendly policies with welfare programs, echoing past Broad Front leaders like José Mujica.

The region's political landscape is polarized. On one side are authoritarian regimes—Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Venezuela—marked by military-backed dictatorships, economic collapse, and ties to drug cartels. Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega recently centralized power through constitutional reforms, aiming to establish a family dynasty akin to North Korea. In Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro clings to power despite opposition victories, while pro-democracy figures like María Corina Machado continue their fight in exile or hiding.

Conversely, leaders like El Salvador's Nayib Bukele and Argentina's Javier Milei represent a new wave of right-wing populism. Bukele, with a 95% approval rating, has transformed El Salvador from a gang-violence epicenter to one of Latin America’s safest countries. Milei, in under a year, has tackled Argentina’s inflation crisis, though at a significant social cost. Both leaders enjoy favorable ties with the incoming Trump administration, which is expected to prioritize results-driven governance over democratic formalities.

This shifting dynamic raises critical questions: Can these leaders establish sustainable governance models, or will they fall victim to the region’s cyclical instability? Meanwhile, liberal democracies in Latin America, as seen in Uruguay, struggle with voter fatigue and limited reelection prospects.

U.S. influence looms large. The incoming Trump administration is likely to reshape regional alliances, leveraging leaders like Bukele and Milei as security partners. Reports suggest Venezuela’s Maduro may seek negotiations for a safe exit, while Mexico is already adjusting trade policies in anticipation of U.S. demands. Military interventions to dismantle dictatorships, supported by allies like Argentina and El Salvador, are not off the table.

What used to pass for the Latin American left is today trapped in the amber of 1960’s political discourse. Its relevance is minimal, and its followers seem to be what Peruvian writer Alvaro Vargas Llosa once called “the perfect Latin American idiots”.

Cuba can no longer provide the necessary electricity to keep the country running, nor can the regime provide enough food to sustain the population. The sixty-five-year experiment with communism has proven an unmitigated disaster, and every other country that has had this system forced upon it is a basket case

The love affair between the Latin American left and a bankrupt 1960s ideology must end if the region is to move forward and develop the economic and political institutions that serve voters rather than an idea whose time has long passed

The traditional Latin American right has lost ideological traction in a world in which it is no longer a necessity to fight communism or Soviet influence. Indeed, no military government in history has delivered results matching those achieved by Bukele and retained a popularity rating of over 90%.

The enduring challenge for Latin America now remains clear: delivering governance that balances short-term results with long-term stability.

As Bukele’s success captivates the region, many wonder if his approach could redefine democratic governance for a continent desperate for change.