Mr. Carney Goes to Washington

by Eduardo del Buey

Mr. Carney Goes to Washington

On April 28, Canadians went to the polls and elected Mark Carney and his Liberal party into government.

Mr. Carney faced two adversaries during the campaign: opposition leader Pierre Poilievre and U.S. President Donald Trump.

He defeated Mr. Poilievre and almost won an absolute majority.

His primary message during the campaign was that he was the leader capable of best challenging the President and confronting him.

Consequently, all eyes were focused on the White House on May 6, when the Prime Minister met with the President for their first face-to-face encounter.

Throughout the campaign and in the lead-up to this meeting, many Canadians feared that the Prime Minister would be “Zelenskyed” during the Oval Office press availability. All visitors to the Oval Office may face this at any time, and, given the President’s mercurial nature and Vice President Vance's volatility, this fear was well-founded.

Both leaders adhered to their talking points: the President addressed his desire for Canada to become the 51^st state, stated that tariffs would continue to be enforced, and mentioned that Canada had nothing the U.S. needed or wanted, while the Prime Minister countered the President at every turn, reiterating his campaign messages that “Canada is not for sale,” that the tariffs are unnecessary, and that “Canada is the American’s most important client.”

That said, both leaders exuded charm and spoke to and of each other with respect. The Prime Minister did not fawn at any point during the encounter, and the President avoided his usual use of nicknames or derogatory terms when addressing his Canadian counterpart.

The Prime Minister welcomed the President’s decision to attend the G-7 summit in Canada in June, describing it as their second conversation in the ongoing process that has now begun.

The last time Mr. Trump attended a G-7 Summit in Canada, the outcome was disastrous and created lasting animosity with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Indeed, during the Oval Office meeting, the President reiterated his dislike for Trudeau and former Canadian Free Trade Negotiator Chrystia Freeland, who led the free trade negotiations in 2018. Mr. Carney wisely kept his reactions neutral and in check, choosing to let the President ramble on without disturbing the friendly ambiance they had created.

Both leaders acted as their spokespersons, ensuring that members of their respective entourages stayed silent throughout the encounter. This continued throughout the day, as Canadian participants avoided the media and left all public commentary to the Prime Minister.

Neither leader spoke to the press about the 90-minute closed-door meeting over lunch, which leads me to believe they want to keep negotiations secret for now. The Prime Minister was cautious during his press conference, while the President limited himself to laudatory generalities about the encounter in comments made later in the day.

Prime Minister Carney is expected to maintain tight control over negotiations moving forward, given the crucial need to keep momentum steady with a volatile president on the other side of the table.

The foundation for civilized discourse has been established. Both leaders seemed to find each other sympathetic, which bodes well, as the Canadian ministerial team appears to have built excellent relationships with their American counterparts.

Bismarck once noted that those who love law and sausages should never watch either being made.

The same goes for these negotiations.

The Canadian team is expected to uphold discipline in the coming weeks and months. Given the president's volatile nature, maintaining message discipline will be crucial to keeping negotiations stable.

The American team is notably more vocal, as evidenced by the contradictory remarks often made by cabinet secretaries on key issues.

The Canadian side should refrain from publicly responding to every nuance expressed by the Americans during the negotiations, maintaining its composure until consensus is reached on any key issue.

The Prime Minister, a globally respected economist shaped by years in senior positions managing major global crises and interacting with world leaders, is expected to wield a firm and steady hand at the tiller.

Canadian voters have made a good choice, and the first meeting with the American President has occurred without any bloodshed.

On the contrary, the optics are good.

The Canadian public diplomacy campaign must continue to advance at all levels of engagement in the U.S. and maintain pressure on the White House, ensuring that it flows from the ground up.

While the end result Canada hopes to achieve may seem impossible now, negotiation is a dance, complete with its rhythms and scores. Many elements contribute to the choreography, and numerous surprises will arise along the journey.

The initial encounter went as well as could be expected, and both sides have established an excellent foundation for moving forward.

Godspeed, Prime Minister, Godspeed, Canada!