Plus Ça Change...

by Eduardo del Buey

Plus Ça Change…

As we enter the month of May, there are some fundamental questions we must can ask in terms of geopolitical developments.

On January 3^rd, U.S. President Donald Trump sent troops into Caracas to extract its illegitimate president Nicolas Maduro and bring him to New York for trial.

On February 28^th, the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, claiming to seek to destroy its nuclear infrastructure and eliminate its leadership.

Since returning to office last year Mr. Trump has claimed that he could resolve the war between Ukraine and Russia in 24 hours.

I have always believed in results-based management, in saying something when you have a clear idea about the objective, and under-promising while over-delivering.

The U.S. president has yet to identify his ultimate goals with respect to the conflicts that he has initiated, and there appears to be no defined endgame.

On May 1, 2026, Venezuelan dictator Delcy Rodriguez remains in charge of Venezuela as does her coterie of Chavistas.

The clear winners of the 2024 presidential elections, Edmundo Gonzañes and Maria Corinna Machado remain sidelined since Mr. Trump shows no sign of replacing the Maduro regime with a democratically elected government. That will be up to the Venezuelan people – a difficult task if Trump continues to support the Chavista regime.

Meanwhile, Venezuela's oil deliveries generate funds now that the U.S. boycott has been lifted, but the money is deposited in a Qatari bank account under the personal control of the U.S. President.

Before February 28^th, the Strait of Hormuz was open to navigation, and the Iranian leadership continued to murder tens of thousands of its citizens.

While many first-line Iranian leaders have been killed, the IRGC regime continues to wield absolute power with no signs of going anywhere, and their murderous activities continue unabated.

The war has left the Iranian regime enjoying a veneer of victory over the powerful U.S. military as Mr. Trump begs the world to help him free the now closed Straits of Hormuz from Iranian absolute control.

Indeed, the much-vaunted U.S. military appears incapable of dealing with Iran’s drone and anti-drone technological prowess, as well as its fleet of fast small boats that can sting the larger ships of the U.S. fleet as well as commercial ships that try to run the blockade.

Twenty-first century warfare is taking on new contours, as both Iran and Ukraine have successfully dealt with attacks from the world’s two superpowers. They say that generals are always fighting the last war, and technology has rewritten the rule book for today’s asymmetrical military campaigns.

Mr. Trump appears to be searching in vain for an Iranian version of Delcy Rodriguez with whom he can negotiate a face-saving withdrawal and somehow claim a victory of sorts.

The Trump administration’s firing of its most experienced military leaders and intelligence operatives with significant expertise in Iranian affairs has left the emperor wearing no clothes.

The Iran-China-Russia-North Korea axis appears to be holding, and the U.S. President appears to be floundering despite the inordinate imbalances between their respective militaries.

In Europe, four years of warfare have left Russian President Putin’s troops decimated, his advances in Ukraine in a quagmire, and, despite everything the Trump administration has done to help the Russian president, Ukraine under President Zelensky is holding firm.

Mr. Trump appears hell-bent to destroy NATO and dismember the EU – probably the most erotic of Putin’s geopolitical dreams.

Oil prices and consumer prices have increased exponentially, and world trade is severely affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the entrance to the Red Sea/Suez Canal.

Some have concluded that high oil prices benefit the Trump administration since the U.S. is the world’s largest producer and its ports are saturated with tankers filling up, giving the U.S. economy significant amounts of funds to partially replace those lost through ill-advised and poorly thought-out tariff policies.

In addition, by succeeding in closing off the Strait of Hormuz, China is being deprived of easy access to Iranian oil and is forced to seek further respite from Russia since Venezuelan oil is also now off limits.

Consequently, on May 1^st, I ask if the U.S. President had any idea of what he was getting into by attacking Iran, any idea of the cost in prestige the U.S. military, intelligence, and diplomatic cadres were going to suffer from Iran’s holding the U.S. onslaught to a standstill, and the domestic cost of the impact of this betrayal of campaign promises on his MAGA constituency.

When the president speaks, he sounds like he is living in his own special universe with no basis in reality, while his lack of success is evident to all who deal with facts on the ground.

One can only hope that he and his Republican supporters will be held to account come November, and that saner minds will prevail.