Recognizing Palestine

be Eduardo del Buey

PODCAST: https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/37ad6a45-e9ef-4c51-bb70-ccd184b9ebfe/audio

Recognizing Palestine

Recently, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron announced that the UK and France would grant diplomatic recognition to Palestine.

This week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Canada was also considering such a move, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez made a similar announcement in June.

While over 140 countries have already recognized Palestine, this will be the first time that G-7 nations and UN Security Council members take such a step, and it raises several questions I believe leaders must answer as they begin to navigate the consequences of their decision.

Indeed, recognition is not the conclusion of a process but the start of a longer and more complex one where many challenges must be faced and concessions made on all sides.

Prime Minister Carney has conditioned Canada’s recognition in September on several issues, most importantly, the commitment to holding free and fair elections in 2026 without Hamas participating.

The problem with Canada’s condition is that a poll released last week found rising support for the Hamas terror group among Palestinians, both in the West Bank and in Gaza.

The poll, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) between May 26 and June 1, found that overall support for Hamas in the Palestinian territories was 40%, a six-point increase from the previous survey three months earlier. Only about 20% support the Fatah party of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, which governs the Palestinian areas of the West Bank.

So, which Palestine are they recognizing?

Is it Palestine governed from Ramallah by octogenarian Mahmoud Abbas, who has led an ineffective and corrupt government for over twenty years without facing the electorate in free and fair elections?

The same Palestinian government that has rejected deals three times, which could have led to the state they claim to want?

Is it Gaza in Palestine governed by a terrorist organization whose explicit aim is to erase Israel from the map?

Do these leaders have a plan to persuade Hamas to give up its weapons and participate in peace negotiations with Israel?

Would they expect Hamas to simply disappear on its own, or would they be willing to use force to disarm them and change the government in Gaza?

Could these Western leaders persuade their taxpayers to fund the security force needed to disarm Hamas and accept the loss of lives involved?

How would the reconstruction of Palestine be financed?

Could these leaders persuade their taxpayers to provide again the hundreds of billions of dollars needed to build a viable Palestinian economy and establish the modern governance foundations necessary for Palestine to survive and compete in a globalized economy? Billions that were last used on tunnels, weapons, and training for terrorists.

Could the West persuade the oil-rich Gulf states to fund such a project when their governments, except Qatar, refuse to let Palestinians seek refuge in their countries and might oppose a democratic and prosperous Palestine in their midst?

Could Western governments persuade Islamists to abandon their belief that Islam should destroy Western civilization and enforce Sharia worldwide?

Can the international community persuade Israel to stop its plans to build more settlements in the West Bank and give up hopes of annexing both territories once Hamas is gone?

Can the West persuade Israelis to accept a neighboring state whose aim has always been their destruction, especially when Western governments struggle to control dangerous antisemitism in their own streets?

Do these leaders have any plan to address the decades of hatred between the two populations and the internal divisions on each side to enable a dialogue that could lead to the much-anticipated two-state solution?

Leaders need to address these and many other questions if they want their constituents to accept their recognition of Palestine realistically and achieve peace in the region.

These leaders and their advisors must accept that recognition is just the start of a long process that will require considerable creative thinking and luck to reach their goals.

Ignoring the real costs and sacrifices a two-state solution would involve, or simply catering to the desires of their Muslim minorities, does not provide a clear answer to the problems and challenges we all face in resolving the situation in the Middle East.

Finally, which country or organization has the trust of all parties to act as a potential mediator for talks?

I, for one, cannot identify any.

Without an effective mediator, setting the foundation for any future dialogue and guiding it toward a successful outcome simply aren't possible.

I hope these leaders have considered these and many more questions that might arise and begin developing a viable and marketable roadmap for the complex dialogue ahead.

Absent this, the results will be sterile, and the conflicts, violence, and deaths will persist.