The Dominos are Falling

by Eduardo del Buey

The Dominos are Falling.

On October 6, 2023, the world went to sleep with a relatively quiet Middle East.

Early the next morning, Hamas unleashed its vicious terrorist attack on Israel and changed the region and world forever.

Hamas, Hezbollah, and their mentors in Teheran believed that growing Israeli dissatisfaction with the Netanyahu government could be transformed into an issue that could irrevocably weaken the Jewish state.

They were wrong.

Rather than find itself weakened, the Israeli government unleashed a military operation that destroyed the leadership of both terrorist organizations, set in motion the dissolution of the Assad dictatorship in Syria, exposed Russia’s weakness because of the war in Ukraine, and diminished Iran’s control of the Shia arc of influence from Teheran to the Mediterranean.

Israel has emerged stronger than ever in the region and is now ready for a resumption of the incoming Trump Administration’s Abraham Accord 2.0. as it hopes to relegate the Palestinian issue to the past and move forward with diplomatic relations with all states in the region.

The Palestinians have often chosen the losing side in international disputes.

Recall how they backed Saddam Hussein when he invaded Kuwait in 1990.

Now, they backed Syria’s Bashir al-Assad to the hilt, only to have his regime destroyed by a coalition of insurgents that includes ISIS and Al Qaeda terrorists. They will remember Palestinian perfidy as this disparate group attempts to govern in very difficult circumstances.

When it comes to governing, will the group in power in Damascus as of Sunday become a respectable movement capable of ensuring the rights of all, or will it dissolve into a mishmash of competing power centers that will leave Syria a failed state, as happened in Libya and Iraq?

Will Syria become the thriving democracy for which one would hope, or will it devolve into yet another failed Islamist state?

Recall that the Taliban claimed to have changed from their previous incarnation when they took over Afghanistan once again in 2021. Instead, that country has become once again one of the most repressive regimes in the world.

Will Turkey’s Erdogan continue to back this group, many of whom are ISIS terrorists? Will its NATO allies finally lick it out of the alliance given Turkey’s support for ISIS, its stated goal of invading Israel should the war against Hamas in Gaza continue, and its continuing genocide against the Kurds?

In this latest strategic faux pas, the Ayatollahs in Tehran have lost prestige and much ground. Will Iranians who oppose the regime coalesce around a leader like Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as he moves internationally and within the country to solidify his hold on the opposition?

The Ayatollahs’ regional influence is now gone, and their enemy Israel is strengthened.

Since Sunday, Israel has been relentlessly bombing Iranian factories producing missiles and rockets in Syria, as well as strategic military bases and materiel and chemical and biological weapons depots to preclude them from falling into the wrong hands.

Further afield, Russia is a major loser in this conflict.

Putin backed Al Assad to the hilt to keep its warm-water naval base in Tartus and twenty more bases across the country. One aim was to prevent building an oil and gas pipeline from the Gulf states to Europe, freeing the continent from its overall dependency on Russian fuel and considerably reducing Russia’s power over EU and NATO policies.

The cost of its ongoing war in Ukraine, both in personnel and in money, appears to have drained the resources required for Russia to maintain its position as a global power.

At the same time, the United Nations has emerged with its reputation in tatters. UNRWA’s proven direct participation in the October 7^th terrorist attack and UNIFIL’s active support for Hezbollah in Lebanon have all called into question the credibility of the entire organization and its leadership.

Of course, much depends on the incoming Trump administration and whether it decides to limit or even withdraw its support for the U.N. and leave it financially bankrupt and bereft of any power or influence.

Back home, Hamas’s ill-conceived massacre on October 7^th has led to the destruction of its leadership structure and of Gaza as a whole. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s decision to attack Israel from the north has led to the elimination of its leadership and the reduction of its hold over Lebanon.

Lebanon could emerge as a much freer state, free from Syrian, Iranian, and Hezbollah influence, and return to its historic cosmopolitan roots.

Global pro-Islamist sympathies among Muslims and non-Muslims have grown exponentially since October 7^th, as has antisemitism.

Anti-migrant sentiment against Muslims has grown around the world, leading many Western governments and institutions to appear weak in the face of this threat.

Indeed, many on the right are now arguing that Syrian refugees should now be forced to return to Syria since the regime no longer poses a threat to their lives.

Given its fragile political and economic situation, can a new Syria absorb this influx of people?

We already see results as incumbent governments feel the pressure from resurgent right-wing opposition parties and the ire of many voters for their costly coddling of immigrants and refugees and for the threats to national security and to the strong cultural base that these societies used to enjoy.

On the other side of the world, the dictatorships in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua will also feel the pinch of their ally Al Assad’s fall – especially with the incoming Trump administration’s stated opposition to their leaders and systems. Indeed, incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been very definite about the need to replace these corrupt dictatorships with governments more to the liking of the U.S.

The Syrian experience offers hope to these regimes' internal and external opponents. Hope that I hope will empower them to remove tyrants from power and begin a new governance chapter.

Last but not least, we can ask if the developments to date set back any possibility of a deal between Palestinians and Israelis on a two-state solution.

Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria all opposed such a compromise.

Will their lost influence lead to the emergence of moderate Palestinian leaders to set the groundwork for an eventual peace deal?

These are the “known knowns,” as former U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld used to say.

The “unknown knowns” will become apparent in the days and weeks to come.

The most important “unknowns” are: can the rulers of Syria eliminate ISIS-controlled elements and create a truly free democracy, and how will the incoming Trump administration deal with these developments?

These will be decisive factors in determining eventual longer-term outcomes.

The dominos are falling.

Overall, these are major tectonic shifts in global geopolitics that no one could have imagined on October 6, 2023, and whose impact is still unclear.

There is much to ponder, much to fear, and much for which to hope.

Stay tuned!