The Next Venezuelan Election

“Repressive regimes do not endure change willingly - and Venezuela is no exception”.                       

Leopoldo Lopez, Venezuelan Opposition Politician

On October 17^th of last year Venezuela’s government and opposition reached an agreement in Bridgetown, Barbados, laying the groundwork for a competitive presidential election in 2024. The agreement is part of broader efforts to bring dialogue between the Venezuelan government and the opposition as well as to promote negotiations aiming at free and fair elections in the country.

The United States temporarily lifted a number of sanctions for six months contingent upon the Maduro regime’s implementation of the agreement.

However, it will not surprise readers that, in keeping with his dictatorial mindset, President Nicolas Maduro began breaking the terms of the agreement soon after it was signed.

In January, Maduro’s handpicked Supreme Justice Tribunal upheld a ban which prevents opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado from holding office, upending the opposition’s plans for the elections planned for July 28. Machado had won an overwhelming victory in the opposition’s primaries and was expected to hand Maduro a resounding defeat in a free and fair election.

Now, the opposition is in disarray and has no other candidate with the political weight that Machado would bring to the campaign.

Last week Machado announced that 80 year old Corina Yoris would be the opposition candidate for the opposition.

Yoris, a highly respected academic who has never held office, would face the challenge of maintaining the enthusiasm that Machado managed to spark among opposition supporters and skeptics last year — a tall order with only four months left before the election in which Maduro is seeking six more years in office.

As well, Maduro’s police arrested almost a dozen of Machado’s campaign members on trumped upcharges of plotting to assadinate the dictator.

Yet, she may not make it to the election.

Maduro’s police and military have blocked roads leading to the National Electoral Commission Caracas to prevent her from registering her candidacy in person. She has also been blocked from registering on-line before the March 25th deadline since the digital system has suddenly become inoperative.

Countering Madurista claims that she was born in Uruguay and thus ineligible to run for the presidency, Yoris has said that “I was born in Caracas and as everyone can quickly verify, my father is from the Falcon State and my mother from the Aragua State.”

The US government has condemned the court decision to ban Machado and arrest her campaign members. Maduro’s actions will definitely set relations back between both countries.

“The United States is currently reviewing our Venezuela sanctions policy, based on this development and the recent political targeting of democratic opposition candidates and civil society,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement.

Where does Maduro get his political support?

The senior military ranks appear to be firmly in his camp.

According to Transparencia Venezuela, at least 60 of the 576 state-run companies are led by the military, including the state-owned petroleum company PDVSAn the government’s cash cow. The militarization of the government continues apace. As of January 2019, 9 of 32 government ministries were controlled by the military, including the ministries of agriculture and energy.

Consequently, the military’s influence on and within government has grown to a level not seen in Venezuela since the end of Marcos Pérez Jiménez’s dictatorship in 1958.

This is of great concern not just for their undue influence but also their access to state funds that has increased Venezuela’s reputation as one of the most corrupt countries in the world. According to Transparency International, Venezuela ranks at 177 out of 180 on its corruption index.

Thus, the military is not likely to drop its support for the regime anytime soon.

Meanwhile, the security forces are firmly under the control of Cuban intelligence officers who have shared their knowhow from containing Cuban uprisings since the revolution of 1959.

Can the international community do anything to force Maduro to change course?

The United States could decide to reimpose the sanctions it lifted last November but the Maduro regime survived previous sanctions imposed by the former Trump administration thanks to support from Iran, Russia, and China – the former two enjoying vast experience in circumventing Western sanctions and excellent relations with Maduro.

Venezuela left the Organization of American States (OAS) four years ago, so OAS resolutions are irrelevant. The United Nations Security Council will remain impotent as long as Venezuela’s allies Russia and China have veto power.

Armed intervention would be a political and logistical nightmare.

Any U.S. led invasion would face global repudiation.

Venezuela’s two major neighbors, Brazil and Colombia, are governed by Maduro sympathizers, so there would be no support for a U.S. force trying to use their territories to launch an invasion.

As Leopoldo Lopez has well noted, Maduro has no intention nor need to allow a democratic election that would remove his regime from power, nor do the military or security forces want to eliminate the hen that lays their golden eggs and subject themselves to trials for their crimes.

Consequently, an early return to democracy in Venezuela appears highly unlikely unless and until the mass of Venezuelans coalesce around a leader who can head a successful popular uprising or win a surprise election.

At this time, this seems highly unlikely.