The Putin-Kim Bromance
Dear Readers. Today I am honored to have James Trottier with us. James will discuss the recent visit to North Korea by Russian President Vladimir Putin. James Trottier is a Fellow of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, a lawyer and a former career Canadian diplomat. He was accredited to South Korea and to North Korea where he led four Canadian diplomatic delegations in 2015 and 2016 and conducted successful negotiations for the release of a Canadian prisoner. He directed Political/Economic (Diplomatic) Programs at Canadian Embassies in South Korea, Thailand and Philippines, was the Chargé d'affaires and Political Counsellor in Myanmar and Laos and served in Vietnam and at the Cambodian border and for 4 years at the Permanent Mission of Canada to the UN in New York.
The podcast is at the end of the article.
The Putin-Kim Bromance
"It remains to be seen how far and how deep Russia and North Korea will go in their alliance relationship this time. Will North Korean troops appear in Ukraine? Will Russia provide military assistance to the North in possible North-South clashes over the disputed border in the Yellow Sea? Nothing is off the table now."
Artyom Lukin, of Russia's Far Eastern Federal University
Welcome to today’s blog.
Today we have a guest on our podcast, Canada’s foremost expert on North Korea James Trottier, a retired Canadian diplomat who has led Canadian diplomatic missions to the hermit kingdom.
I hope that you find it informative.
Please share this with your friends and among your networks if you find the information and opinions interesting. Have a great day!
Kim and Vlad’s Excellent Adventure
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang with his cap in hat. If indeed a tail ever wagged a dog, here it is.
Putin arrived in Pyongyang looking very much like a supplicant seeking military support for his faltering campaign in Ukraine and for some respite from the global sanctions on Russia.
Photos of the two indicate that the body language illustrated Putin’s subservience, as opposed to past photos of him with other world leaders where his posture and expression is one of bored superiroity.
In a move that might create a tectonic shift in the global balance of power, both leaders signed the "Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership", which, in effect, revives a defunct mutual defence agreement from the 1960s.
The agreement, which Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed on Wednesday also includes cooperation on nuclear energy, space exploration, food and energy security, and is one of the highest-profile moves in Asia by Moscow in years.
This agreement gains Russia greater access to North Korean weapons and logistical support since the UN Charter allows states to assist their allies who face military aggression. This despite the current sanctions on both countries. Russia desperately needs the North’s equipment and, perhaps, troops as Ukraine obtains more equipment and logistical support from the West.
However, I believe that it is North Korea that will come out ahead.
The treaty provides for North Korean access to Russian space technology that will allow them to develop rockets capable of delivering nuclear payloads to North America and Europe.
This has the makings of a tectonic shift in the balance of power since it has the possibility of pitting the US and Russia in case of aggression along the North-South border. I also do not discount North Korean troops on the Ukrainian front should Russia’s situation continue to deteriorate.
Ukraine however has an ace up its sleeve.
While Russia has a sole ally. In North Korea, a completely isolated state living in a bubble, Ukrainian President Zelensky attended the peace conference in Geneva two weeks ago where 100 countries signalled their support for his government and Ukrainian territorial integrity.
According to the Swiss Government, hosts of the summit, the meeting achieved its goal of initiating a wide-ranging dialogue on peace in Ukraine. The participants openly shared their stances, perspectives and proposals, marking an important first step towards identifying potential building blocks for a peace process. The joint communiqué represents a milestone in this regard. States that did not send representatives to this summit could endorse the joint communiqué.
As well, as Putin was leaving North Korea, South Korea announced that it will consider sending arms to Ukraine in the wake of the agreement between Kim and Putin.
Thus, Putin seems to have left Europe forever. Although he could decide to invade parts of Europe that he covets if Russia ever bests Ukraine, Russia will be persona non grata in European circles and its reach will be limited to agents of influence entrenched in European institutions.
Meanwhile, the West faces a dilemma.
A nuclear axis of evil -- Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran – each with an innate belligerence and expansionist ideas.
North Korea will develop the ability to reach Europe and North America with nuclear payloads.
Russia will have added support to defeat Ukraine with North Korean personnel (possibly) and weaponry in addition the help it already receives from China and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
These are major challenges facing the West.
And, although the tail seems to be wagging the dog now, the tail’s sting has become far more dangerous than the dog’s bark.
Podcast.