The Second Coming

by Eduardo del Buey

The Second Coming

On January 20, Donald Trump will celebrate his return to the White House.

True to form, it promises to be momentous.

Known throughout his life as a disruptive force, he has not surprised us since his victory at the polls on November 5^th.

Readers will appreciate that I have never been a fan of his since I have always respected the leadership skills and qualities of giants such as Winston Churchill, JFK, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien, and others who brought elegance and depth to their roles.

However, I admit that Mr. Trump has made a tremendous impact before even taking office and it could affect us all for some time.

Canadian and Mexican leaders have both reacted with alacrity to Mr. Trump’s threat of a 25% tariff on both countries unless immediate steps are taken to address the flow of drugs and migrants to the U.S.

Mexican President Sheinbaum has already dismantled the caravans of refugees headed for the U.S. border through Mexico, and Prime Minister Trudeau has announced several measures to stop drugs and illegal migration from flowing south.

Mr. Trump’s impact has not been limited to his immediate neighbors.

Oil and Israel are at the top of Mr. Trump’s agenda; he holds a good hand of cards.

He recently called for the release of all the hostages held by Hamas before he takes office, or else he will subject the terrorist organization to annihilation.

One suspects that this message has been received by a weakened Iranian Islamic State regime that sponsors both Hamas and Hezbollah.

On the other side, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is strengthened and can be expected to continue his drive to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah.

Mr. Trump’s return could also see an expansion of the Abraham Accords to include other Arab states – good relations with the U.S. and Israel in return for kicking the Palestinian issue into the long grass.

Republicans are fed up as well with the pro-Palestinian antisemitic demonstrations that have inundated the U.S. since October 7^th and would like nothing better than to deport these activists and all non-US citizens who are Muslims and who don’t choose to assimilate to American values.

The war in Syria has recently produced a startling change: regime change in which ISIS and its allies seem to be closing in on grabbing power.

Mr. Trump’s announced policy of avoiding foreign entanglements will face its first challenge since Israel is not prepared to have an ISIS-controlled government on its borders.

Turkey remains an enigma.

Erdogan’s perfidy against NATO would not bother Mr. Trump much, given his distaste for the alliance, nor would his cozying up to Russia.

But Erdogan’s threat to invade Israel in support of its Hamas allies and his support for the ISIS-oriented government emerging in Syria will not go unanswered by the Trump administration, and this must be giving the Turkish dictator some food for thought.

Concerning the Islamic Republic in Iran, a weakened regime could fall victim to an attack on its nuclear facilities by U.S. forces and an effort to drive the Ayatollahs out.

Recently, Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has been very active, offering himself as an alternative, and his supporters are front and center at every pro-Israel demonstration around the world. Indeed, his supporters have even been demonstrating in Teheran and other Iranian cities.

Pahlavi would give the U.S. an excuse to actively pursue regime change with a pro-Western leader who already has considerable credibility with the Iranian people — increasingly fed up with Islamism and the Ayatollahs.

Nicolas Maduro, the Venezuelan dictator, faces his comeuppance on January 10^th, when his democratically elected leader Edmundo Gonzalez is supposed to take office.

Already, rumors are swirling that Maduro is seeking some deal to allow him and his supporters to leave office with their ill-gotten fortunes without being pursued by the U.S.

More fuel for the fire!

Cuba, meanwhile, is in the throes of a major energy disaster amid the communist government’s inability to provide even the most limited food rations and power to its population.

Gone are the mythical Castro brothers.

All that is left is a corrupt military and security force running what passes for the Cuban economy.

Also, incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (himself Cuban-American) hates the Cuban and Venezuelan regimes, and the administration's close ties to the Academi (formerly Blackwater) mercenary group could make for a successful replay of the 1961 Bay of Pigs invasion in both countries.

Ukraine is still up in the air with respect to the incoming administration. Mr. Trump recently met with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Paris, and the public chemistry appeared to be positive. Will Mr. Trump be able to convince President Zelensky to accept Russian territorial gains in exchange for peace?

Finally, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and his team must also see the writing on the wall. Incoming U.S. Ambassador Stefanik has been forceful in her attacks on the organization and will likely deliver some bad news early into her tenure.

I think that the U.N. is due for a massive budget cut, if not a complete U.S. withdrawal from the organization or at least a withdrawal from some of its more controversial specialized agencies.

Mr. Trump has not yet taken office, but his impact is already felt globally.

Let’s see how this all pans out!