The Venezuelan Election

by Eduardo del Buey

Today I am pleased to welcome Allan Culham, Canada’s former Ambassador to Venezuela, Permanent Representative to the Organization of American States, and Special Advisor to the Canadian Government on policy towards Venezuela.

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Venezuelan Election

On July 28^th, the corrupt Venezuelan Electoral Commission declared that the corrupt Venezuelan incumbent, Nicolas Maduro, won the vastly corrupt election that day.

I use the word corrupt freely because it is the only way to describe the Venezuelan political scene during the past 25 years and the election that just took place.

When the Chavez-Maduro regime came to power in 1999, it created a new reality in Venezuela. The military were slowly coopted by the regime by giving senior commanders control of many of the state corporations, allowing them to steal billions from the treasury and amass a considerable amount of power within the system.

The price: wholehearted support for the regime and for the President. Senior military officers have responded as expected and are now part of the problem rather than a possible part of the solution.

Junior military officers are reported to be upset with the current corruption by their superiors, but it remains to be seen if the Cuban security forces that have penetrated the military at all levels will stem this opposition and force the lower ranks to toe the line.

The cost to Venezuela: the gross mismanagement of state assets in the hands of corrupt military officers, the collapse of a once strong economy, and the flight of eight million Venezuelan refugees to other Latin American countries and to the United States.

More will likely leave if Maduro remains in power, costing Venezuela’s adjoining neighbors millions of dollars a month to sustain them while they slowly join the economy in those countries that already have high unemployment.

Chavez and Maduro imported thousands of Cuban security officials to man the security and intelligence services, and to teach Venezuelan officers in the best methods of political oppression and social control.

Indeed, reports I have seen indicate that Russian Wagner Group mercenaries are already in Caracas, and that a number of planeloads of Cuban military and security officers have landed in Caracas to ensure that police forces carry our Maduro’s orders to arrest opposition leaders as well as voting scrutineers to prevent them from speaking about the way Maduro’s thugs stole the election.

The result has been the incarceration of thousands of Venezuelans on trumped up charges stemming from their opposition to the regime.

The election results are also a direct consequence of the oppression carried out by Maduro’s military, security forces, and the “colectivos” – the Maduro thugs on motorcycles, armed with machine guns, who threaten Venezuelans on a daily basis.

Chavez and Maduro also stacked the judiciary with their lackies, and they have served the regime well.

In the lead-up to Sunday’s election, the opposition coalesced around Maria Corinna Machado – a charismatic opponent of the regime backed by the country’s opposition forces.

Both she and her successor were barred from running by the Supreme Court, leaving a retired former diplomat – Edmundo Gonzalez – to carry the banner.

According to the opposition, Gonzales won 70% of the vote before Maduro and his military and security forces intervened, stealing thousands of ballot boxes and intimidating voters. Even election officials were under Maduro’s thumb and blocked voters in opposition strongholds from voting.

As it stands, Maduro has been proclaimed President for the next six-year period, and his election win has been recognized by the usual Latin American fellow travelers – Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Honduras. China has also congratulated Maduro, and, at the time of writing, Iran and Russia are expected to do so as well.

The United States has expressed “concern”, and Costa Rica, Argentina, Chile, and Peru have refused to legitimize this fraud.

But at the Organization of American States (OAS) this week the Permanent Council failed to pass a resolution condemning the Maduro regime’s action. The OAS needs a majority of 17 out of 34 votes in order to pass a resolution of this type.

The Caribbean states – democracies – abstained from voting since they survive on the largess of cheap Venezuelan petroleum products. Brazil, Bolivia, and Colombia abstained from voting, and Mexico never showed up.

The leaders of these states are trapped in the amber of 1960’s Marxism and have not joined the 21^st century where the ills of this ideology are evident in countries like Venezuela, Cuba, and North Korea. They still follow the creed of the Castros et al and have never joined the real world.

So, what’s next?

I don’t think the opposition is going to retire quietly.

Many will call for military intervention by Venezuela’s democratic neighbors, but will they do so in view of the Venezuelan military’s relative strength and their loyalty to the regime?

Is the U.S. through military contacts trying to provide military leaders and senior government officials with an exit strategy that would not result in prosecution and would allow them to keep their booty?

Barring the above, will the people take to the streets knowing full well the risks of a bloodbath? Already there have been massive street demonstrations throughout the country.

The Attorney General has announced that anyone arrested for contesting the election will be tried and sentenced to from 10 to 20 years. Will this inhibit further demonstrations?

Can Western democracies prevent senior Venezuelan government and political officials, members of the judiciary, military officers, and others from travelling to Western countries, and prevent their siblings and children from studying or living a life of luxury in the West?

Will Western governments freeze all Venezuelan assets abroad, sell the real estate, and use these funds to finance the costs of maintaining the eight million refugees currently destitute in countries that lack the resources to assimilate them?

These are all questions that will have to be addressed depending on developments during the next few days and weeks.

Stay tuned!

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