Trumpian Diplomacy

by Eduardo del Buey

Trumpian Diplomacy

A few weeks ago, Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to allow U.S. military planes carrying Colombian deportees landing rights on Colombian soil, citing the inhumane treatment of deportees by U.S. authorities.

As the planes turned back, the Trump administration responded by imposing an immediate 25% tariff on all Colombian exports, stating it would increase to 50% in a few days.

President Petro relented immediately, and the flights proceeded with no further impediment.

According to a recent New York Times article by David Sanger, there were no meetings in the Situation Room or quiet calls to de-escalate the dispute. Instead, there were only threats, counter-threats, acts of surrender, and signs of the President’s approach to diplomatic negotiations, which demonstrated minimal regard for nuance or compromise.

Ultimately, it took only about 12 hours for President Trump’s first direct confrontation with one of the United States’ closest allies in Latin America—a blowup over Colombia’s rejection of U.S. military flights to repatriate illegal immigrants—to lead to a complete retreat by the target of Mr. Trump’s threats.

The Trump administration did not threaten military action against Colombia over this absurd episode. Instead, it imposed tariffs to hit the country where it hurts the most—its economy—rather than risking U.S. lives through military intervention.

This is how the Trump administration proceeds to impose its will in a non-military manner.

Indeed, when asked if he would use military force against Canada to make it the 51^st state, he responded no, he would use economic power to persuade Canada to do its bidding.

Recently, Professor Josep Colomer of Georgetown University wrote that “Donald J. Trump does not want to conquer the world, but quite the opposite: he plans to entrench himself in North America, close the borders, forget about Europe, and accommodate zones of influence with Russia and China not to have to go from war to war to save his purported friends.”

In Trump’s own words, he intends to measure their success “not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars we end and, perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”

According to Prof. Colomer, the United States is an empire in retreat.

Its last military victory was thirty-four years ago, in the Persian Gulf War. Afterward, it unilaterally retreated, unsuccessfully or defeated, from Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria.

Now, it no longer sends troops to conflict zones, such as Ukraine, where it only sells weapons.

However, in a World Politics Review article, James Bosworth argues that Trump’s rhetoric has shifted “from isolationist to expansionist,” which warns that the world is unprepared for a U.S. government interested in territorial expansion.

“Trump’s glib comments about his willingness to use the U.S. military in the Western Hemisphere should not be dismissed as too absurd or out of touch to consider. On the contrary, Panama, its neighbors, Denmark, Trump’s recent announcement on Gaza, and the rest of the world should take Trump’s calls for a U.S. return to Manifest Destiny and territorial expansion very seriously.

Trump is a transactional politician.

He views every situation as a deal focused solely on U.S. interests. He sees little value in the U.N., NATO, and the EU, regarding these organizations as a burden on the U.S. instead of allies to pursue shared foreign policy goals.

He has no time for rules-based diplomacy or traditional policy formulation and decision-making methods. He decides capriciously and instantaneously, takes immediate action with little or no prior consultation, and employs the most powerful weapon in his arsenal.

He cares little about the impact of his policies on his sphere of influence. Deporting undocumented immigrants to their home countries will create severe hardships for those nations. For instance, remittances account for 20% of Guatemala’s GDP and cannot absorb returnees. This situation will exert significant economic and social pressures on many countries in the region, which may struggle to cope without resulting in social upheavals and economic difficulties.

Is Trump’s vision achievable?

He doesn’t really care.

It makes sense to him in his own world, which is the only criterion that matters to him and his followers.

His disdain for orthodox diplomacy will leave many twisting in the wind, leading to sleepless nights for leaders everywhere.

His use of massive deportations and tariffs as fundamental tools of diplomacy leaves other countries with few policy options.

His decision to abruptly terminate the mandate of USAID is leaving tens of millions of victims around the world bereft of much-needed sustenance.

Traditionally, USAID has enjoyed strong bipartisan support in Washington. Supporters argue that, in addition to saving lives, it helps stabilize some of the world’s poorest and most unstable regions while acting as a bulwark against Russian and Chinese influence.

“We are the richest nation in the history of nations,” a senior U.S. government official told The Washington Post on Tuesday, speaking anonymously because he was not authorized to speak to the press. “Despite the possibility of individual program exemptions, tens of millions of people in East Africa alone are not receiving any humanitarian aid today".

Indeed, many may suffer along the way, but empathy, patience, and genuinely listening to others have never been Trump’s strong suits.

The international rules-based order is over. What follows appears to be a disorganized, poorly governed regime led by a whimsical and unpredictable president whose hasty actions and erratic responses have consistently defined his leadership style.

Over the next four years, we can expect many surprises as we enter the brave new world of Trumpian diplomacy.

Buckle up!