Venezuela

 Venezuela

A few days ago, a reader asked me if I thought Venezuela was going to hell in a handbasket. I replied that it is already there, it may be sinking even further, and the chances of returning to daylight any time soon are remote.

Venezuela is an economic basket case.

Twenty-nine percent of all Venezuelan households receive funding from the approximately seven million Venezuelans who have fled the country since Hugo Chavez took over in 1999 and was succeeded by Nicolas Maduro in 2013.

Venezuela’s key export is oil and natural gas, the same as it was when I served at the Canadian Embassy there from 1980-84. The economy relies on a single export – oil - and Venezuelans either live on money made by providing services to one another, government handouts designed to keep them quiet, or remittances.

The average monthly worker’s salary is US$53 and $216 per month for managers. According to NUMBEO, the monthly requirement for a single person to live in Venezuela without rent is $596 per month.

Hence, the current popular dissatisfaction with the Maduro regime and the reason why Maduro has squeezed any vestige of political freedom and possibility of a clean presidential election sometime this year.

Politically, Venezuela is the typical banana republic.

According to The Economist, one poll in November found that 70% of those surveyed said they would elect opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado with just 9% supporting Mr. Maduro. So, it was not surprising when Maduro’s handpicked judges ruled on January 27 that Ms. Machado cannot seek any political office for 15 years.

In October, the U.S. government lifted sanctions for six months on most of the country’s oil, mining, and gold sectors in exchange for the regime agreeing, with members of the opposition, to a deal signed in Barbados which includes releasing political prisoners and holding broadly democratic elections this year.

The current situation demonstrates that that Maduro lied, as is his wont.

Ms. Machado insists that she is the only opposition leader in Venezuela, ratified by 92% of voters in the recent primary.

This past month, Maduro has had dozens of individuals accused of plotting to murder arrested. Authorities have offered no proof, but this development, together with the   expulsion of local employees of the UN Human Rights Office last week (accused of being “colonialist” and interventionist) would indicate that the Maduro regime feels confident that it cancontinue to use brute force to govern.

The visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Venezuela today underscores the strength of this bilateral relationship. Venezuela gets diplomatic support for its governance model (and a de facto UN Security Council vote in its favor should Venezuela’s egregious behavior be raised in that forum) and Russia gets support in Latin America after the murder by the regime of Alexei Navalny last week.

How can Venezuelans register their opposition to the regime?

Massive protests in the past have been violently put down by the security forces run by the Cuban intelligence service. Russia and China continue to loan Venezuela billions of dollars annually to keep it afloat and will likely continue to do so in fear that an opposition victory could jeopardize their ability to recoup their investments as well as eliminate their foothold in the Americas.

Since Chavez came to power in 1999, Venezuela has become a military kleptocracy. Senior military officers run most of the state industries and the Bolivarian nomenklatura rakes in the money. The military are bought (or Maduro is their captive – whichever you prefer) and are not likely potential agents of change unless they feel threatened – and then, only to retain the current system under new leadership.

There are reports that more junior military officers who are not sharing in the wealth and who may resent the massive corruption, that they do not benefit from, are discontented. However, Venezuelan security forces, buttressed by their Cuban allies, are doing a good job of keeping them in check.

Is there any remedy on the horizon?

It seems not.

While the U.S. will likely reimpose its sanctions on Venezuela, Maduro has survived such challenges for over a decade and will likely survive them again. Venezuelans who have remained in the country have lived with these economic conditions for nearly two decades and their protests have not borne fruit.

Barring foreign intervention (a non-starter in Latin America given the region’s historical experiences and support for Maduro from his neighbors in Brazil and Colombia), change could only come from within through a revolt by a mass popular movement supported by junior military officers.

The U.S. presently has little clout over Venezuela, while Russia and China have geopolitical interests in the region that lead them to provide diplomatic, political, and  economic support to Venezuela. Iran, also a pariah state with a significant intelligence presence in Venezuela, is also a key ally of the Maduro regime.

Any uprising by Venezuelans at this stage of the game could well prove bloody given the financial and political stakes for those in power and their foreign supporters.

Thus, this hell could well remain the reality for most Venezuelans for some time to come, and the flow of refugees from that country will continue unabated.