Hello Readers. Today my guest is David Gollob. David has been Central American correspondent for CBC, BBC, and NPR, as well as Producer of National News for CBC. Today we discuss the impact of Venezuelan refugees in Colombia where David is based. The article itself focuses on events of the past week in Venezuela and what may come. Together they focus on the plight of Venezuelans inside and outside the country.
Many thanks for your kind attention.
Venezuela Redux
This past weekend, mass demonstrations in support of the Venezuelan democratic opposition took place in major cities globally.
Background
The Maduro regime stole Venezuela’s election on July 28th.
The opposition won with a 40% margin.
The few international observers allowed to witness the election reported that the results issued by the electoral commission are false and confirmed the opposition victory.
Yet, Maduro continues to maintain that he won the election with 51% of the votes, according to his tally.
Repression
Venezuela is now seeing the most brutal repression in Latin America in fifty years, with people have been shot in the streets by troops and security officers.
According to Allan Culham, Special Advisor to the Canadian government on Venezuela, the regime is employing a novel terror tactic. It involves detaining people for short periods, scaring them out of their wits, and then releasing them in order to sow fear and obtain obedience.
Supporters of the opposition party have had their homes painted with signs that identify their lack of loyalty to the regime.
Radio and television stations have been shut down, and the regime has clamped down on social media to prevent news from getting out. Journalists have been arrested simply for accessing websites and WhatsApp chats reflecting opposition views.
Maduro has imposed an internet clampdown unprecedented anywhere in the world other than China.
Effects of Repression
President-elect Edmundo Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado are in hiding and fear for their lives. They emerge every so often and post video messages or contact their followers through word of mouth to rally protestors.
Sources of Support for both sides
Broad international support for the president-elect continues with demands that opposition leaders be kept safe and alive.
A defiant Machado came out of hiding to motivate the crowds and show the world that the opposition is alive and functioning despite threats to their lives.
The international reaction has been mixed.
While the Maduro regime still enjoys the support of fellow travelers like Russia, Cuba, China, and Iran, it is benefitting from weak responses by Latin American neighbors like Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.
Brazil’s Lula da Silva and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro have called for another election to “resolve” the situation. The Brazilian and Colombian positions originate from the fact that Petro is still trapped in the amber of 1960’s Marxism, and Lula fancies himself as the leader of Latin American socialism. They are looking for ways to ensure that Maduro has another bite at the apple, something that the opposition vehemently rejects.
One reason why some don’t want to play hardball with Maduro is to provide him with a face-saving way out. Should he remain in power, on the other hand, this would increase the flow of millions more refugees to countries already groaning under the burden of the eight million who have left to date.
According to the UN, this is the largest peace time exodus of refugees in history.
Indeed, neighboring Colombia is host to nearly three million Venezuelan refugees. Their opposition to Maduro contrasts with President Petro’s tacit support for the regime.
With an eye to accessing Venezuela’s vast resources, Russian, Chinese, Iranian and Cuban support will likely remain steadfast.
Their military and police presence keep possibly restive lower ranked Venezuelan security officials in check.
An inflection point
One of the fears of regime leaders is the vulnerability of the billions of dollars in assets they have allegedly stolen that could be seized by governments or diverted by hackers.
Hackers claim that they are targeting the accounts of Venezuelan political and military leaders at home and abroad. This could provide an incentive for regime leaders to decide to leave quickly with their ill-gotten gains intact.
We may well be at an inflection point.
The two major opposition leaders remain free for now and supported by millions of Venezuelans.
According to Mr. Culham, the only thing that could work is a negotiated settlement supported by the international community.
The next few weeks will be crucial.
And, I hope, decisive, with an opposition victory in the end.
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