What was, What is, What will be

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist”. 

President Dwight D. Eisenhower 1961

Last week a reader asked me where I thought the world was headed. I replied, “to hell in a hand basket”.

Sadly, I see no other direction absent a radical change in our behavior and that of our leaders.

Where we were at the beginning of the century was a unipolar world. It came to an end as the Russia that we had democratic hopes for had again reverted to dictatorship. The next year came the attacks on the twin towers and the Pentagon, taking the world into a whole new era of Islamic terrorism and turmoil in Afghanistan and Iraq.

2008 saw the financial meltdown that altered the dream of a global economy buttressed by a global democratic system of governance. The impact of rapid change in many labour markets put what had been a move towards free markets and globalization of finance and trade under pressure amongst those who felt “left out”.

The next big crisis was the birth and expansion of ISIS, and the creation of the Islamic state that, although it only lasted a few years, has transformed the world into one of global Islamism versus liberal democracy.

COVID struck in the early 2020’s, underscoring the dangers of the globalized rationalization of production of strategic products and forced vaccines. Many governments realized the risks of placing production of medical products in a few countries that could shut down in a crisis and exacerbate a pandemic.

Protectionism became a political mantra born out of a dislike of globalism and a multiculturalism resulting from massive migration and the perceived collapse of national borders by many. The result has been a rise in populism that has left no one behind.

Today, we live in a highly polarized world with the distances between extremes growing and governments increasingly incapable of meeting the needs or aspirations of their citizens. The world is increasingly violent, while the United Nations remains impotent and, at times, feeds differences rather than reconciling them. All the while, technology brings new realities to an already complex world.

Whether through polarisation or the tracking power of Big Brother technology, much of the world is slipping away from democratic ideals towards autocracies of the right and the left. The United States continue to flirt with Donald Trump and the extreme Democrat left. Canada has Pierre Poilievre on the right and Justin Trudeau on the left. In both countries, the center is absent.

The United Kingdom is also deeply divided with a hapless Liberal Democratic Party in the center but with little chance of winning. France is seeing the growth of the right-wing National Rally party that may well win the next election, and Germany’s right wing Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) is the main opposition party that is also in a strong position.

Iran has carved out its sphere of influence in the Middle East and is funding both Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as propping up the Syrian dictatorship.

Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel on October 7^th has unleashed a wave of global antisemitism that threatens Jews everywhere. Islamism is attaining massive influence in the West as it feeds off antisemitism and anti-Israeli hatred and enjoys the strong support of Islamic émigré communities.

The axis of dictatorships – Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba – is growing in strength and influence.

This in essence is the state of world today.

Where are we going?

We are living in an age of fundamental transformation.

Climate change is wreaking havoc in a globe where fresh water is becoming scarce, famine is increasing, and drought is affecting both food production and migration. Many leaders still deny climate change, while others address this man-made phenomenon from the perspective of their national economies rather than on the long-term viability of an ecosystem that can sustain life globally.

Rather than look at the long-term impact of this crisis, leaders prefer to kick the can down the road so that the costs of mitigating the effects of this phenomenon will not interfere with their immediate electoral or financial ambitions. 

While some multinational companies are shifting towards a green economy, government policies in many countries still appear to be steered by the interests of large traditional energy companies and their lobbyists who continue to fund political parties that oppose legislation that would decrease their power.

Media companies are another problem. Truth as paramount in reporting has died, replaced by media that use their influence to shape public opinion rather than simply report the news and allow audiences to come to their own conclusions.

Buttressed by the ubiquitous social media that pervades our lives, truth is drowned out by the noise of X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, and others in which conspiracy theories abound.

Education systems that are weak in teaching people critical thinking along with the explosion of unsubstantiated media sources create the groundwork for a universe of conspiracy theories manipulated by unscrupulous political, corporate, and social leaders to achieve their own political goals and obtain and keep power at any cost.

Technology has arrived at a point where artificial intelligence (AI) is permeating every field of human endeavor. This is both a blessing and a curse.

It is a blessing because it will unleash an enormous creative potential that could enhance our lives if it is accompanied by a political maturity that leaves individuals in control of their lives.

It is dangerous because it could well lead to unfettered control over our lives by government and private industry – the new military-industrial complex.

Regardless of whether AI is controlled by government or the private sector, our lives will be managed by a power beyond our individual control. Political parties will cease to offer viable alternatives since the private and public sector giants will control resources and outcomes.

The prescient words of former President Dwight D. Eisenhower have come home to roost.

Absent a radical change in leaders around the world, the future I see is a cross between Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World and George Orwell’s 1984.

A future in which all-powerful governments melded with global corporations wield the real power and control over our lives behind a façade populistic governance.

A military-industrial complex that rules with the bread and circuses of social media melded with the words and exhortations of populist leaders who divide and govern with the support of social and religious leaders who keep the public in check.

Can the present be transformed into a more encouraging future?

It will require concerted leadership globally.

The G-20 summits will have to focus on two or three key issues that must be dealt with.

Among topics core to the global agenda, the possibilities are climate change and global warming, free trade to enhance the flow of products and increase wealth, and finally, securing a peaceful world where violence between states and societies is managed by effective multilateral institutions with real clout.

These leaders will have to be able to come together on these key issues, develop new ideas and convince people to understand the benefits of a more globalised view to shared issues. It may also mean accepting and sharing short-term pain for long-term gain and engage them to participate in achieving better results.

Governments will have to focus on simple issues that must be resolved rather than spend time debating issues that are not critical.

Debates on cultural issues such as who can use which bathroom and attempts to institutionalize religion as a basis for governance seem to be a waste of taxpayers’ money when there are real problems that must be resolved – immigration and displacement, housing, mass transportation and others that require careful planning and investment.

Governments must differentiate between the perfect and the good and focus less on wedge issues and more on solving the problems common to all.

For example, Canada has refused to build facilities to export liquid natural gas (LNG) to a number of countries that want to buy it desperately because the left wing of the governing Liberal and New Democratic Party are against any kind of non-renewable energy extraction.

LNG is a clean burning fuel that can replace coal and oil, yet Canada is taking a “holier than thou” attitude that is costing it thousands of jobs and depriving many economies of clean energy.

How much energy is wasted in the United States on the abortion issue. A woman’s body is hers and hers alone. Yet governments at all levels are wasting valuable resources and time better spent on addressing real issues of consequence.

Common sense is missing in much of today’s leadership, and I think it will cost us plenty if we don’t change our priorities and direction.

Positive results on key issues are the only way to regain public trust in institutions of governance.

Absent these changes, the dystopian worlds of 1984, Brave New World, and The Handmaid’s Tale could well become a reality.