Canada's New Government

by Eduardo del Buey

Canada’s New Government

Last Friday, Canada saw a changing of the guard.

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau left office after 9 years, and Mark Carney took the oath of office with a much smaller cabinet of ministers.

He also removed a significant Liberal leftist leader by not appointing Karina Gould, one of his rivals for the Liberal leadership, to Cabinet.

The composition of his cabinet, leaner yet full of experienced ministers, sent a message to Canadians in this time of crisis.

Prime Minister Carney will lead a smaller government with a more centrist and focused approach than Mr. Trudeau’s, concentrating on three main goals: strengthening Canadian unity against the Trump administration’s attack on Canada’s sovereignty, protecting Canadian jobs and the economy, and opening new markets for Canadian exports.

Opposition leaders reacted as expected.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre persisted in his personal attacks on Mr. Carney, questioning his patriotism and criticizing the Liberal government’s carbon tax (which Mr. Carney abolished that very afternoon), and blaming all of the Trudeau government's problems on Mr. Carney.

The Prime Minister is not a member of Parliament. This means that when the House convenes on March 24^th, he will need to sit in the visitor’s gallery and let his cabinet colleagues lead the debates with the opposition—a losing proposition.

Rather, I think it likely that he will call an election next week for late April/early May to help him secure a seat and see if his ruling Liberals can win a fourth mandate.

Can he win?

That is up in the air.

Until Mr. Trudeau announced his plan to retire, the opposition Conservatives had a twenty-point lead over the Liberals.

But, as former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once noted, a week is a long time in politics.

When the Trump administration announced substantial tariffs on imports from Canada, the outgoing Prime Minister skillfully utilized the U.S. tariff conflict to rally Canadians under the pretense of protecting national sovereignty and the economy.

The resulting call for Canadian unity has raided a level of patriotism unseen in Canada in recent years and, as was the case with the pandemic crisis, left the opposition crying in the wind.

This has brought the Liberals in recent polls to a statistical tie with the Conservatives.

These polls suggest that the Liberal team is seen as an effective way to manage the declining bilateral relationship with the United States. After a decade in power, their extensive network of contacts in the U.S. may help in dealing with a volatile and unstable president.

By retaining them in important cabinet roles, the new Prime Minister has guaranteed that Canadians have a capable and experienced team of negotiators during this crucial period until an election can occur.

Former Prime Minister Trudeau led his administration by catering to every special interest group's desires, which was reflected in his cabinet ministries. Little attention was given to managing the economy, immigration, and security, contributing to his downfall and many of the country's problems today.

In my world, if everything is a priority, nothing is a priority.

As a former governor of the Bank of Canada and later the Bank of England, Mr. Carney brings a wealth of management experience to his role. He promises to streamline government, enhance its effectiveness and efficiency, focus on real objectives that address voters’ concerns, and use 21st-century technology to improve the delivery of government services.

His playbook has left the opposition in a quandary.

He has stripped Mr. Poilievre of his key argument—the carbon tax—by eliminating it on day one. Additionally, while many of his team of ministers remain in place, Mr. Trudeau, who had proven unpopular with voters, is gone, making it a completely different situation.

Indeed, as one pundit noted, it’s 2025, not 2024.

Many Canadian voters do not well receive Mr. Poilievre’s strategy of personal and aggressive attacks on others. In my view, his tactics, some of which are similar to those used in Trump's campaigns, contradict fundamental Canadian values. With an unpopular prime minister now gone, many previously disaffected Liberal and Conservative voters may return to the Liberal Party.

This has resulted in an unpredictable campaign where anything goes, and anything can happen.

This story unfolds against the backdrop of a significant existential crisis for Canada and a global reality that has shifted abruptly in the past six weeks.

Things can indeed change quickly … stay tuned!