The Russian Dream Come True?

by Eduardo del Buey

Today, I will discuss how Hungary is a Russian asset in the heart of the European Union and NATO with Robert Noble, former Canadian Ambassador and Director for Central European Affairs at the Canadian Foreign Ministry. The videocast follows the text. If you enjoy both, please invite your friends to subscribe and join the dialogue. Ciao for now!

The Russian Dream Come True?

Since the beginning of the Cold War, the Russian empire’s dream has been the destruction of NATO and the European Union (EU) — first, as the Soviet Union, and subsequently, by the Putin regime.

For the first time, this dream may be coming true.

Russia has two main agents of influence in NATO – Turkish President Recep Tayyep Erdogan and Hungarian Prime Minister Orban.

It has a major agent of influence in the EU, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

In 2021 Turkish strongman Erdogan purchased the S-400 air defence system from Russia in what former senior Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen called a diplomatic catastrophe of historical magnitude.

This threw NATO into a tizzy, as did Turkey’s decision to stall Swedish admission into the organization until recently.

Erdogan's close ties with Putin have benefited Turkey in deferments on payments for Russian energy. The Turkish leader is also looking to Washington to pay a high price to remove the Russian weapons. 

"Turkey can easily renounce on S-400; it's a political decision, it's not a military necessity," said Huseyin Bagci, head of the Foreign Policy Institute, a research organisation in Ankara.  

"So far, the S-400 has helped Turkey to increase the level of negotiations with NATO and the United States of America."

Ankara's purchase of Russian missiles was widely seen as a diplomatic triumph for Moscow, dividing Turkey from its NATO allies.

NATO retaliated by withdrawing Turkey from the F-35 program while the U.S. sold these advanced jets to Greece, Turkey’s arch rival in the Aegean.

Turkey has decided to not install the S-400 system in exchange for U.S. approval for the sale of these advanced jets. As well, there appears to be a rapprochement of sorts between Ankara and Washington brewing.

However, Turkey’s ongoing oppression of its Kurdish minority and its bombing of Kurdish villages do not sit well with its European neighbors.

Also, on July 28^th, Erdogan told a party meeting that Turkey might enter Israel as it had done in the past in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, though he did not spell out what sort of intervention he was suggesting.

"We must be very strong so that Israel can't do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them," Erdogan told a meeting of his ruling AK Party in his hometown of Rize.

There is no doubt that Erdogan is perceived by many as a stooge for Russian and Islamist interests and a subversive element in the Alliance. Indeed, he has close ties to Hamas and Hezbollah and allows these organizations to seek medical services for their fighters in Turkey and allows them to have representative offices in Ankara.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the second stick in the spokes of the wheels of the E.U. and NATO.

The current Hungarian presidency of the EU Council is worrying. Orban’s years-long, consistent policy of undermining EU unity on Ukraine and other issues has prompted many to question whether Hungary should have been allowed to take on the role that is filled on a rotating basis.

In the early days of the Hungarian presidency Orban visited Putin in Moscow to discuss a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine without the Council’s permission.

He then flew directly to Mar a Lago to brief ex-President Donald Trump – again without EU Council authorization and without meeting with members of the Biden administration. He continues to toe the Russian line on the possible conditions for peace negotiations with Ukraine.

Also, his autocratic regime has raised the hackles of other EU member states who have frozen financial transfers to Budapest and are threatening even more sanctions. Academic and press freedoms no longer exist, the lines between the administration and the judiciary have been blurred beyond recognition, and he continues to taunt his erstwhile EU colleagues with his duplicity, intransigence, and bullying tactics.

Orban has publicly claimed that Putin is a role model to be followed and has criticised Western democracy, much to the ire of Brussels and Washington. His Christian nationalism goes against EU policy and many within the Union are calling for Hungary’s suspension or expulsion from both organizations.

I believe that both the Turkish and Hungarian leaders are agents of influence for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and are playing a duplicitous game at both NATO’s and the EU’s expense.

I also believe that the time has come to turn the screws on both since neither represents the core values of either organization.

Absent strong action, the West could well find itself in a greatly compromised position vis a vis Russia as Putin continues with his expansionist plans in Ukraine and beyond.

Videocast: