Trump's Wars

by Eduardo del Buey

Trump’s Wars

By placing severe tariffs on all their exports to the US, Donald Trump has declared economic war on Canada and Mexico and seems determined to see things through to their conclusions.

The Trump tariffs present major threats to both countries. However, given that they were announced in the months before Trump’s election, they should not come as a surprise.

For Canada, these actions, along with his repeated comments arguing that Canada ought to become the 51^st state, make this an existential threat. In a recent media scrum, he said he would not use military force to attain this goal. Rather, he would force Canada to comply through economic pressure.

When he announced the 25% tariffs, he emphasized his strategy by threatening to escalate the situation if Canada retaliated. Given the Canadian government’s commitment to imposing its own tariffs on U.S. products, this increase may well happen soon.

This action effectively invalidates the CUSMA free trade agreement that Trump himself signed, and the rationale for doing so extends well beyond the “legal emergency” argument of illegal migration or fentanyl.

It underscores Trump’s dedication to Manifest Destiny, the 19^th-century policy of expanding American dominance throughout North America.

Indeed, although Canada was founded because the people rejected this concept, generations of Canadians have been lulled into believing that the United States is a benevolent partner.

Trump has put an end to this false reality.

Can Canada survive this onslaught by the Trump administration?

The jury is out.

The Canadian economy is overly reliant on the United States due to the federal government's inability or unwillingness to diversify its energy export to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as to develop the infrastructure needed to transport oil and liquid natural gas and to refine it to higher value product within the country to create value internally and for export purposes

Provincial governments' unwillingness to eliminate internal trade barriers has also greatly impeded GDP growth, diverting Canadian trade into a north-south rather than an east-west pattern.

Canadian nationalism—the unifying force essential for maintaining a national vision—has also been undermined by Prime Minister Trudeau’s notion of Canada as a “post-national state.” This concept embraces an ambiguous understanding of multiculturalism rather than promoting a stronger Canadian identity among individuals across all regions of the country.

Therefore, Trump’s threat is not only economic but also existential. His real goal is to incorporate Canada into the American Union.

We need to concentrate on this threat when developing strategies to address this facet of Trumpian “diplomacy”.

The war with Mexico is far different.

Trump has no desire to integrate 130 million Mexicans into U.S. society.

His goal is to dismantle the drug cartels he claims are colluding with Mexican political leaders to funnel billions of dollars worth of drugs into the U.S. He has made it clear that he won't hesitate to use military force to achieve this objective. Indeed, the cartels are heavily armed and control vast areas of Mexican territory, making such an endeavor potentially costly in terms of American lives and resources.

Both wars were announced months ago. Both target countries are to blame for failing to take the necessary steps to address American concerns proactively.

They now confront an American administration that completely dominates every institution of governance without any internal checks and balances.

Since his political journey began in 2015, Trump has been preparing the American public for both campaigns.

In my view, Canada has never been weaker than it is now.

A weak central government presents a minor challenge for the Trump administration. In fact, Prime Minister Trudeau has been unable to communicate directly with the U.S. President since his inauguration.

Mexican institutions often face challenges and are vulnerable to security breaches.

This places Trump in control as he employs a divide-and-conquer strategy with his two primary trading partners.