Vlad's Excellent Fortnight

Hello dear readers, in this article and podcast we discuss Vladimir Putin’s apparent gains in a geopolitical sense as a result of events over the past few weeks. My guest is Anne Leahy, former Canadian Ambassador to Russia and the Vatican and a keen observer of the international scene.

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Vlad’s Excellent Fortnight

Say what you will, it has been an excellent fortnight for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

Putin’s Goals

His trifecta of dreams – to neutralize the United States, weaken NATO, and divide the European Union (EU) – appears to be on track.

The Current American Reality

The United States is as close to a crisis of unity as it has ever been since 1861.

President Biden’s terrible performance during the debate, the moderators’ decisions to not challenge Trump’s massive number of lies, the current turmoil in the Democratic Party, and the Supreme Court’s decision that a President, in this case Trump, enjoys immunity for acts committed during his presidential term all lead many to conclude that Trump will prevail in November.

It has been obvious to all that Trump is an admirer of Putin’s and will undoubtedly support Putin in his war of aggression in Ukraine.

Trump will also likely work to weaken NATO and the EU, seek individual trade deals with European countries, and diminish the EU’s geopolitical clout.

The Supreme Court’s decision could also provide a re-elected President Trump with the unlimited power to rule by decree, matching Putin’s hold over Russia.

Dictatorship?

The result could be a dictatorship of sorts in the United States beyond anything envisioned by the founding fathers, or a danger that civil disturbances could break out calling into question the unity and viability of the country.

The founding fathers drafted the Declaration of Independence as a call to avoid placing political power almost exclusively in the hands of a “king”.

One only has to look at Adolph Hitler’s Law to Remedy the Distress of the People and the Reich passed in 1932 that led directly to providing Hitler with unlimited power beholden to no one can lead us to understand that granting a president complete immunity is the beginning of sliding down a slippery slope.

I know that many object to comparing Trump to Hitler, but we must learn from history, and it shows us that it is quite possible that the Supreme Court decision could be the first step towards dictatorship.

The European Reality

Turning to Europe, the first round of parliamentary elections in France has demonstrated the growing power of Marine LePen’s right wing National Rally and the weakness of President Macron’s presidency. Here we must be wary of her potential loyalty to Putin for funding her movement over the years which coincidentally melds well with her opposition to Islamism and the EU.

Her stance against the EU’s common agricultural policy has been a cornerstone of her political platform for years. Her objections to Islamist immigration and her determination to rid France of this fifth column will put her on a collision course with the European Court of Human Rights and the EU’s immigration policies.

While her party did not win the runoff election on Sunday, she is still Putin’s client and will undoubtedly be a strong contender for the presidency in 2027

Another possible gain for Putin who revels in any act that diminishes the EU’s power.

This past week, Dutch leader Geert Wilders announced that the Netherlands will impose strict border controls and withdraw from the Schengen Agreement that provides for unlimited mobility for all EU citizens. One can expect the rapid deportation of Islamists and the closing of foreign funded Mosques and Madrassas.

Agree or disagree with these policies, they are another brick pulled from the EU’s wall.

Hungary’s Disruptive Role

Finally, Hungary took over the presidency of the EU for a six-month period.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been a thorn in the side of the EU and acts as Putin’s fifth columnist within the both the Union and NATO. One can only imagine that he, along with his allies in the Netherlands and other fellow travellers (Italy and Slovakia), will likely cause some further destabilization during this period.

Indeed, he began Hungary’s presidency by travelling to Moscow and Beijing ostensibly to promote a solution to the war in Ukraine, much to the chagrin of other EU leaders.

Can the EU survive as a political organization, or will it transform into a trade and economic bloc as it was when the original Treaty of Rome came into being in 1956. Even then, can an economic union survive in the face of rampant economic nationalism as farmers engage in huge anti-EU demonstrations in France and Spain?

Orban, along with President Erdogan of Turkey, also plays a disruptive role within NATO and has blocked NATO assistance for Ukraine up until now. Will he use the Presidency of the EU to further Putin’s interests by blocking aid to Ukraine?

Conclusions

A Trump win in November would cement a military and diplomatic victory of immeasurable proportions for Putin’s goal of weakening and subsequently subjugating Ukraine.

Former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson used to say that a week is a long time in politics.

This past fortnight demonstrates that two weeks can do much to change the basis for geopolitics in a convoluted world.

And all in Vlad the dictator’s favor.

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