What If?

by Eduardo del Buey

What If?

In the 1990’s hit sitcom “Seinfeld”, one of its characters, George Costanza, portrays the eternal loser. In one episode, however, he decides to do the opposite of what his instincts dictate.

Lo and behold, he succeeds!

Fast forward to today.

At the time of writing, Canada’s Conservative Party has a twenty-point lead over Prime Minister Trudeau’s Liberals.

The Conservative lead appears to be insurmountable, and their leader, Pierre Poilievre, is expected to lead a majority government by October of next year at the very latest.

Former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once observed that a week is a long time in politics.

I would argue that five months (the last two months of the Biden administration and the first hundred days of the Trump government) could prove an eternity in Canadian politics.

While even this interlude makes the probability of a Trudeau victory highly unlikely, there might be a way for him to change the tide enough to avoid the complete destruction of the ruling Liberal Party in the next election.

Many Canadians at the center of the political spectrum find themselves leaderless given the choices available.

Prime Minister Trudeau has committed myriad mistakes, governing for the extremes of his party and the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) rather than for the average Canadian who sits at the center of the political spectrum.  

His ministers propose and support some ridiculous policy decisions, spend billions on consultants who have contributed nothing to Canadian voters and on failed policies that have generated scorn among voters.

Corruption has been endemic, and lack of accountability has the rule rather than the exception. Catering to his own whims rather than to common sense has underscored the tone and tenor of the Trudeau government.

It appears to have been a case of ego gratification over pursuit of the common good, and this is made manifest by Mr. Trudeau’s extremely high dislikability numbers.

What must he do to change the tide of massive defeat into one of moderate defeat?

He must let go his ego and personal ambitions and do what is good for his party and for Canadians.

This has me asking several “what ifs?”.

What if Trudeau were to do the opposite of what most politicians in his place would do?

What if, rather than double down on his mistakes, he chose to take full responsibility for them, took concrete steps to reverse them, and offered a new way forward?

What if he assured his personal survival as well as that of the Party by firing incompetent and/or corrupt ministers and unelected officials in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and replaced them with new, more competent colleagues for the balance of his term whose only priority is the application of common sense to policies and programs on which voters depend?

What if he changed government operations to a more democratic and accountable model?  

I think it is important to note that the real power of the Liberal government lies with the unelected officials in the Prime Minister’s Office.

This group runs the government, not the elected members of parliament who constitute the cabinet of ministers. Ministers get their marching orders from this group of unelected officials through their chiefs of staff selected by the PMO and they are accountable only to them and not to the voters who elect them.

What if he dismissed them and convinced voters that policy would be made by an elected, accountable ministry supported by a competent civil service?

What if the Prime Minister discarded the woke and politically correct and replaced it with more focus on the common good and common sense?

What if he considered stealing some of Mr. Poilievre’s thunder (as the Liberals have done in the past) by adopting ideas from the Conservative party playbook and incorporating them into his party’s platform.

Creating a broad political tent in which common sense rather than the ideologies of the fringes is the secret to winning elections.

Common sense works regardless of who is selling it and makes for good politics.

What if the Prime Minister discarded some of the more questionable policies his government has espoused and proposed policies that better address the needs of voters?

Will the Costanza strategy work?

I don’t know.

But the Prime Minister must decide whether ego or common sense will dictate his decisions from now until election day.

Former Liberal Prime Monster Jean Chretien was recorded as saying about Mr. Trudeau, “he’s toast”.

Mr. Chretien remains an astute master of the political game and is quite likely correct in his assessment of Mr. Trudeau’s chances next year.

Sacrificing his ego and personal ambitions for the greater good would ensure that his legacy is not totally negative when he leaves office and that his party can rebuild from a stronger position in opposition.

His choice will determine his legacy and his party’s chances of longer term survival.

What if?